Interesting situation. Bitstamp looking quite a bit more bearish than mtgox. Both are mostly in a state of suspension though, for now.
Let's assume downward breakout today, or over the next few days. Which to me looks slightly more likely right now than the alternative of resuming the 2 week uptrend... Maybe some price targets? If we do in fact go down with some force, but fin support in the 30d EMA (right now @~830 mtgox) I'd take that as a very strong bullish signal for the near future.
Say we break through it though. We have 2 post-ATH lows, 590 and 460. Obviously, should we fall below 460 all bets are off. Staying above both of them, on the other hand will give some confidence we've seen the capitulation bottom. Not a signal for a big rally, but slowly upwards moving consolidation probably.
In any case, until we actually close under the 6h EMA30, I'm not even going to get active. Not a single downtrend came into motion without that happening first in the last 2 months or so. Until then, I'll sit tight
(note however that I aim to trade only the medium/large swings, and let most smaller ones slide)speaking of capitulation,
In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.
Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.
But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen).
you'd be surprised. i would post the models but im afraid i would be giving away far too much information.
--arepo
hint: the price function is self-similar on all scales like a fractal. zoom out and apply the same methods you do to make short-term calls, and voila! is that really a strange concept?
so that's where we're headed now. bumpy consolidation into a final capitulation event, and then we can finally be done with the craziness of the December crash. however, if the bubble paradigm we've seen so many times before holds we will not see sub $450 and we will likely not see sub $600.