Quote from: fenwick on January 08, 2014, 12:15:58 PM

So. Has anybody re-done the calculations with the new shipping date?
What is the estimated total BTC what can be mined by one BJ unit, without the MPP?

End what would the MPP add, if it's shipped 1,2,3,4 months after shipping the BJs?

I am curious to see what kind of loss would it mean to just accept the shipment.

(These calculations could be crucial for those who still have not decided whether or not to cancel their orders, and demand a full refund.)

So... I have updated my spreadsheet with the latest difficulty data.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dGtKTGZDXzVDeFVjbHl3VmNsT216dHc&usp=sharing

The model says that if they provide the MPP and initial order on 1/28, at documented 425GH/s they will combined generate ~22BTC in their lifetime (60% loss from 60BTC purchase price).
To get close to break even (i.e. within 20% of purchase BTC price), they would need to provide MPP on 1/28 and 10x rather than 4x, which would return ~49BTC for an 18% loss.
If they slip a week and ship Feb. 3rd, it goes to 12x to get close... ~51BTC. It quickly gets much worse as they miss more deadlines.

You can play with the model yourself by creating your own copy of the spreadsheet and updating the delivery dates and the MPP multiplier.