The patterns we have relied on when early adopter "whales" with no trading specialization were able to pump and dump reliably are no longer in control of the market.
I disagree. The major p&d cycle that made us wealthy is still there, and will remain there until the adoption curve slows significantly. That has happened in several coins, but has not yet happened in Monero. It has to rise simply because the fundamental value continues to rise.
I was thinking in terms of the broader market, specifically bitcoin which seems to be driving the prevailing crypto currency down trend. My theory is a suspicion at best, based on analysis of pedestrian information sources, and is clearly unsubstantiated. I would love to have access to the data at the big exchanges. I am happy to be corrected and defer to you analysis.
It's almost obvious that in addition to global market manipulation that is going on there are a lot of net sellers in the world of ICO projects. That influences the markets the most and helps the bears to rule so easily. But regarding to Monero that can not be sustained for too long. As usually it will rise wild as it used to in unexpected time. All we need is patience. I do not sell any single XMR before it goes to the moon. ICOs got more than 8 billion dollars just in the last quarter. They received them mostly in ETH and BTC. They had to sell some. No other options to operate especially in a downtrend. Soon we will have a lot of dead coins again and less options to invest for gain. Monero will be one of the few to survive.