Quote from: skyhigh on August 08, 2011, 11:24:38 AM

This is purely my view of the situation and my initial entry point $6.00 in the post you quoted.

$6.00 was a lucky fill, because someone dumped 26k in one large order tanking market down to $5.75. Some were saying who was this idiot or/and that Mtgox should look into it, because it was most likely criminal activity. All of this is possible but most likely its just another bullshit dream from hardcore bulls, coming up with 1001 excuse why this is happening.

If I was an early adopter who would go big into mining when GPU mining started I would probably have like 200k coins, if not more. Since I'm smarter than the average Joe, I would be unloading massive amounts around $20.00 right after the bubble popped and market bounced back up next day. I would be liquidating every coin to my name. Some might say this is a hindsight, but I'm almost 100% sure I would do that. But if somehow I wasn't as smart or if I didn't know what is the most likely path market will take in the next couple of weeks/months I would be selling below $20.00. Whenever there would be enough bids for me to unload 10k-20k I would do it. Even now, when the price got really low, if I was still holding coins I would be hitting that bid whenever I could. This is basically the only way a large coin holder can sell their stash. He/she can't sit around for hours and fight with all this bots and wannabe daytraders moving around 50 coins all day long. There is simply no liquidity in the market to unload big position. Every time someone wants to sell 15k+ market will have an earthquake. It might not seem like much if you consider market daily volume is 100k, but selling even 10k is a huge problem. Most of the time when we get 100k volume, it because this large seller is unloading ~30k.

Market will slide lower all the way until this big sellers are done and out completely. If they will be done soon, we might be close to the bottom at $4 to $6 range, but if this big sellers are still holding a lot, there is no way market can keep up with the supply. This seller isn't crashing the market, they just want to unload their position. When he/she sells ~30k they stop and market stabilizes for a few days, then gets hit by another 30k in a short time and lower it goes. Every time big seller shows up it creates shock waves, because all the small time traders follow. At first everyone is trying to sell as quickly as possible, then when market is way oversold we get this bots or human daytraders moving around tiny trades on which the market bounces, shoots into overbought on practically no volume at all, then sells down and stabilizes at its new trading range, sitting there until the big seller wants to unload again. Lower the market goes more money is waiting to get filled. This is how market will find its bottom. Then will the accumulation phase start. It might take weeks/months before this phase is over, then we would be finally ready to MAYBE start a new uptrend.

Where to next?

I'm sitting and waiting for big seller to done their thing. Whenever they show up and market tanks below what I consider decent entry based on the overall market picture and volumes we are getting at that time, I/you can buy some coins and sell them if the price gets high enough for you/me to be worth the risk/reward. Will we ever see $20 again? I don't know, but its not really important to me. Bitcoin isn't an investment, it's a trading vehicle designed to work regardless of it's price. Bitcoin functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100.

Finally. Someone who can LOGICALLY support his claims and speculations, and appears to know what he is talking about. +1