Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 15, 2018, 02:54:21 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 14, 2018, 04:30:36 PM

$6000 seems to be holding a little too falsely to me. Got to be manipulation holding us arund this range, no?
The price fell all too easily from $8500 to $5800 but recovered to above $6000 (just about) but were holding here by literally $5 - $100, why?

My conspiracy driven mind tells me were being played by whales who are still accumulating at these prices before we begin the next bull run.

It just seems so artificial clinging onto $6000 for dear life & not showing any sogns of crashing significantly below it or pulling away & going up.

Bigger forces at play here, this is not just the market.

your implication that we cannot really know what is going on behind the scenes with any kind of certainty is not without precedent.

Of course, if whales could push the BTC price down more without giving up their own coins, then they are likely to attempt such.

Even though the time frames in 2015 were different, but we spent a considerable amount of the whole year of 2015 in the $200s and there were continued attempts to bring the BTC price down, but at a certain point, they ran out of sellers.

Yeah, we keep revisiting $6k, and none of us know for sure if $6k is going to hold - but we have been here quite a bit, and we continue to return to around this price range. At some point, there are likely to be more buyers than sellers in this price range and at prices much higher than this, but I still think that it could take awhile to break above $10k and to stay there. Would be nice if we could get into the $10k striking range in the coming months, but seems to me that the odds are not really better than 50/50 in that regard, perhaps even in the 40% arena? Surely, I like surprises, especially upwards, but we should continue to prepare ourselves mentally and financially in case it takes longer than expected to get back above $10k.

agree. 2 questions however

1) the revisiting 6k ... is this simply 'manipulation' at this point in time, due to the fact a LOT and I mean a LOT of ASIC miners, btc

and others are folding. Some good-sized data halls as well. Thus forced in the situation of 1) paying off loans/debts etc with btc/crypto

to the bank or whatever to cut down on monthly expenses (not to mention people, pulling out rigs) thus, once their house is in order

(painful though it may be) hope to MINE LIKE HELL and HODL BTC (or whatever crypto) and replenish HOARD at the other side. It is

a half-assed way to do this, but if you have big monthly expenses, cashing coin out now to minimize that and mine at the back end,

from folk I know, seems to be what is going on. ie get the bank off my back, by selling crypto, have the bldg etc as a hedge, if all crypto

goes tulips, and then with less

expenses outside electric, etc and mine and HODL to get it back, after this August has passed. An everyone cashing out because, they

got caught with their pants down, kinda situation...don't ya know.

So my point is, is this a 'short-term' adjustment by miners to a 'new reality' and thus the glut of BTC/crypto sales and getting their house in

order? (hell, I don't know, tossing it out there for better minds than mine to ponder)

Of course, there can be manipulation on all kinds of levels, and surely BIGGER miners or more long term prepared miners might engage in behaviors in order to attempt to push out the competition, including driving the price down lower and for longer. In the end, it is only one of the factors, and some miners are going to be able to ride out the dip for longer and for lower than others, but in the end, the hash rate keeps going up with increases in difficulty. No miners are giving up on bitcoin, but you are correct that some of them might not have positioned themselves as well as others in terms of the amount of capital that they have to float in order to keep their operations going and sometimes maybe having to cash out some bitcoins at times that are ones that they have not chosen.

Regarding bitmain specifically, we certainly do not know their internals, and there have been some folks who have been going through their possible IPO disclosures with a fine tooth comb and even trying to figure out whether or not they are going to be able to fool enough people into giving them money (if an IPO does take place).

It is not exactly easy to make assessments about who are the miners and what are their financial situations or their ability to ride out this particular down wave; however, if a company such as Bitmain goes public then it seems that more of their assets would become publicly knowable - good strategy or not? who knows? could play out in a variety of ways with the entrance of new competition too, and perhaps Bitmain may end up playing their cards wrongly which would allow some other entrants, too.

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

2) what exactly do you have to have for electric and such to make any money with BTC or LTC mining at these current prices?

Like what? Something silly like 5c electric for your BTC or other crypto ASIC rigs? Hell if I know if bitmain is making money or losing money

right now. I guess it depends on what the 'big, I mean really, big boys pay for electric". I've no clue.

There are probably other ways to make efficiencies besides electricity costs, and also a question of being sufficiently capitalized (and even liquid) to be able to ride out possible short term losses. Mining remains just one component that affects price and the games that are played (and manipulations as you mentioned) that might be in the wheel house of some of the players who are either BIGGER or who have positioned themselves well for riding out the wave.

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

To sum up, is the boat on pow mining of any type, just awash and can be bailed out ..or is the pow mining (BTC specifically) sinking?

If you believe that bitcoin incentives, including POW is broken, then you are likely looking at the wrong factors. Each of the miners decide for themselves what they want to do, and even whether to go on their own or to join a pool.

Recall a lot of the misinformation that was spewed out there in 2016 regarding the halvening and the suggestions that BTC mining was going to die down. That did not happen, and there was a bit of a delayed affect, but what happened was the most obvious, BTC prices went up and miners continued to mine on bitcoin.

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

Or hell, is what I'm saying has nothing to do with the price or any other issue with BTC or crypto at this time?

You now that these are all factors, and there are many factors that push price, and it is not just about mining - even though that remains one of the factors.

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

Just a further aside, if any combo of the above is true, would that not mean, this too shall pass? (overproduction vs price) and with

85% of all BTC already mined, there simply will have to be a rebound (eventually)? (or am I delusional?)

I think that we cannot be attempting to place too much emphasis on one thing or another and trying to figure out the matter. The incentives in bitcoin remain quite well designed to inspire mining and profits from rewards and/or fees, and the fact that the hash rate and difficulty continues to go up, even while the price corrects goes to show that miners are still expending resources to mine bitcoin and they are figuring out their own profits (even if they end up betting wrong and losing in the long run, we still get the benefit of their expending resources to mine bitcoin in the short run).

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

as usual, I think you see what I'm pondering here..but really have no idea of how widespread big miners are and if/or not they are

in trouble like the rest of us ....or simply reaping the rewards as pow miners of any flavor are pulled and now doorstops at the lower

end and higher electric price levels (middle and small fry data halls may be toast as I speak)

Each person, including miners, ponders his own market conditions and figures out a strategy that he believes will be profitable that in the case of miners would involve both speculation on BTC price but also figuring out ways to attempt to make his business most efficient and to be able to ride out the down wave. I really don't think that it is fruitful to attempt to figure out the factors that are being weighed by others in order to recognize certain indicators about what we need to figure out for ourselves.

By the way, miners could go out of business because they took on too much risk and they miscalculated or they could go out of business because they have their own internal problems, such as manpower or business management issues, and those factors are going to vary from miner to miner and from pool to pool, including getting their hands on cycling good and powerful equipment and electricity costs, but they have a lot of ways to play their bets on mining and accumulating BTC and they may end up betting wrong and even some factors outside of their expectations happen with their operations and their ability to float the business through the down wave.

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2018, 04:01:19 AM

thanks, as usual, I'm hoping the price is due to the above considerations, short-term and simple low volume and such being August and all.

and again, nothing I've said above has any basis on the current situation this August or price of BTC or crypto and I've missed the mark

entirely. (but then again, delusion may be my middle name, these days, got to have a reason made up or not!)

anyway, above is where the rabbit trail of my mind is going

brad

Yeah, but if there is momentum, then it can take a while to reverse the momentum. Sure, we might continue considering that BTC has visited $6k for the last time, and we are returning up, but as long as the price remains in striking distance of $6k, there are going to be some bear whales who want to attempt to push the price down, and some real people (regular investors) might also wait on the sidelines because they are afraid to get in when they are not certain about whether the "bottom is really in this time".

There remain some informational aspects whether miners or even the knowledge of whales regarding how many coins they can sell that are out of touch for some of us regular peeps to know, so we just have to do our best to attempt to figure out whether we might need to change our strategy from what we had been doing (considering our own liquidity situation, too).