Quote from: T.Stuart on January 09, 2014, 09:20:31 PM

My comment wasn't relating to the fractal in particular - like I said I was enjoying watching it form!

It was just to point out that the Overstock news caused a mini-rally and that this news was not caused by trader sentiment, a market move, or anything else.

it's funny that you claim to know for sure what caused the move up. i would take the scientific approach and say that the fractal model is sufficient to predict that the price would move up after such a large volume bounce off of the moving support, and so Occam's Razor encourages me to ignore any other data. it is because of this that i believe market forces win against news every time. in fact, i have empirical evidence to support this claim, while you merely assume that it was the news Tongue

Quote from: Rdeschain on January 09, 2014, 09:32:40 PM

Hey Arepo,

Just wanted to say that I appreciate your posts and this thread in particular ... which since I began tracking it, has been extremely accurate.

While I can appreciate his enthusiasm and tend to agree that hodling will yield long term benefit and gain, isn't there value in short term gains in earning some fiat or making the right moves to maximize your btc holdings as well? IDK, I'm just a dumb noob with much to learn.

i appreciate the good words and the accountability! it's good to know that many others are also independently testing my work with positive results.

trading on the scales i have been commenting on in this issue of "Arepo's Notes" is a little hectic, and very risky. the longer time scales you apply these methods to, however, the more likely you will make profits, and this is simply due to the stochastic nature of price movement versus the deterministic rules that govern its internal structure. it is simultaneously a fractal with consistent patterns, and a stochastic function that is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy. on smaller scales it looks like a random walk, but as you zoom out it begins to look like a smooth and continuous function, and on scales in-between you will find consistent nested patterns with startling consistency.

that being said, spotting tops and bottoms is essentially the main way to increase your holdings during longer trends. buying as close to market bottoms as possible to make gains in BTC and selling as close to market tops to make gains in USD both work for me, personally. i do believe in the long-term future of Bitcoin and its heretofore undisturbed infinite bullrun, but trading the swings on all scales is not only lucrative, but also very fun

it's easy to calculate the returns one would make simply holding, and my methods have shown to outperform this benchmark consistently. i would recommend that you pick a simple strategy and test it out for some time period, and then compare your returns to what you would have made simply holding. then divide the amount of hours you spent working with predictive models by the additional gains, and decide whether or not actively trading is a worthwhile strategy for you!

happy trading Wink

--arepo