Quote from: T.Stuart on January 09, 2014, 10:14:19 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on January 09, 2014, 10:13:08 PM

Good call, arepo. Let's see what the next days bring.

Ignore the people who think it all reduces to news. News matters, but not in the way they think it does.

I don't think it all reduces to news at all. If you have a minute or two please explain briefly how it matters in the way you think it does. I would be very grateful for the insight!

so in what way does news matter?

short answer -- we can't know.

good thing is, often, we don't have to know. the market internalizes the information for us.

not sure if you saw the following post, T, but if you parse through what i'm saying i think it might be a profound insight to you.

Quote from: arepo on January 09, 2014, 09:58:01 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 09, 2014, 09:36:44 PM

the situation is difficult to read because it is being influenced by virality and factors difficult to factor into day to day calculations. I have explained this in several posts.

you should read up on the Efficient Market Hypothesis and consider how much of what you claim is externally influencing price may already be contained within the price and volume data itself. if a sufficient amount of such information is somehow contained in the data already, then the data itself is the complete picture. traders, through their actions, factor things like virality and fundamentals into the price data with their every action, so there's no need to develop models as to how these things might affect the price as if they were external to it. i hope that clears some things up.

--arepo