Quote from: T.Stuart on January 09, 2014, 10:01:51 PM

Quote from: arepo on January 09, 2014, 09:54:44 PM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 09, 2014, 09:20:31 PM

My comment wasn't relating to the fractal in particular - like I said I was enjoying watching it form!

It was just to point out that the Overstock news caused a mini-rally and that this news was not caused by trader sentiment, a market move, or anything else.

it's funny that you claim to know for sure what caused the move up. i would take the scientific approach and say that the fractal model is sufficient to predict that the price would move up after such a large volume bounce off of the moving support, and so Occam's Razor encourages me to ignore any other data. it is because of this that i believe market forces win against news every time. in fact, i have empirical evidence to support this claim, while you merely assume that it was the news Tongue

--arepo

You are joking aren't you? Sad

Come on please. If you can't admit simple facts that everyone (including people who can't do maths, geometry, etc.) can see with their own eyes then what's the point?

So it is just a coincidence that the Overstock news came online and minutes later the rally (which is still going well) happened?

i'm guessing you don't have much of a background in science...

let me first point out that correlation does not imply causation, that is, just because it happened "at the same time" does not mean that A caused B or vice versa. cum hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

secondly, even if you value this hypothesis, you need to be able to support it with some kind of evidence. i'm not saying that it is definitely not the case that the Overstock news prompted the "mini-rally", but you seem to be claiming that it definitely is the case, without any supporting evidence whatsoever. this is a problem. if you don't ever second guess your intuition, you'll never realize how often it is wrong...

some things to consider about the limits of our knowledge:

when?: do you think everyone learned about the Overstock news at exactly the same moment? probably not. if it had an effect on price, it was likely "priced-in" a lot more gradually than your claim assumes.

how?: are you sure that the Overstock news should have an immediate bullish influence on the price? perhaps in the long run, because of increased adoption, but in the short run, there are actually some bearish possibilities.

the answers to both of these questions of WHEN and HOW news events and other external forces affect price are mired in the complexities of the market, and are the farthest, farthest cry from "simple facts that everyone can see with their own eyes".

i hope you took a moment to reflect on these important limitations to the claims we can make about price behavior.

--arepo