Quote from: eternalgloom on August 17, 2018, 11:16:17 AM

I don't really see how you can make price predictions with that sort of info...
We're talking about one specific company here, while there are tons of other players on the market.

Quote from: Hydrogen on August 17, 2018, 09:57:37 AM

Is it possible bitmain or another ASIC manufacturer is ramping up production and flooding markets, leading to nvidia experiencing a significant decline?

This would be my first thought as well and if you look at Bitmain's profits from 2017, it seems pretty clear that they're dominating the market

http://fortune.com/2018/02/24/bitcoin-mining-bitmain-profits/

Besides, I think OP is kinda coming to the wrong conclusions here. Sales would go up after the price of Bitcoin rises, Bitcoin's value doesn't go up because of increased miner sales.

To reply to both of you, chip sales are a leading indicator of sentiment. So follow my logic here: if chip sales are weak, it's because miners aren't investing in new equipment, which is likely because they don't think it will pay for itself. This means they don't see the price increasing. Miners, more than anyone else, are likely to have a better feel for the future price because their viability is at stake. When miners expect the price to continue rising, they can run losses in the near term to buy more equipment because they expect the higher price to eventually make up for it. So the inverse is the conclusion here. The fact that nvidia, which is a public company well-versed in issuing public guidance under SEC rules, was so blindsided by the weakness for crypto chips in the latest quarter is an indication of how fast the market is slowing down, which indicates how bleak miners view future price prospects to be.

The difference between nvidia and other crypto chipmakers is nvidia is a public company. They issue forward looking guidance and it was to meet certain requirements. Rose private chipmakers have no such obligation and are reporting numbers lookin backwards, so Bitmain's profits in 2017 are a lower quality data point compared to nvidia and also wildly outdated at this point.

That's why I think nvidia's guidance portends to poor sentiment by miners, which in turn portends to a poor price outlook going forward.