Your analysis is good but I disagree $1700 is the peak.
There is every reason to believe AU/oz will break $2000 within 12 months. Every fiat currency is in shambles right now except the Swiss franc, Chinese yuan and yens. Stock markets are crashing like the Titanic.
I've been holding since prices were at $1100 per ounce, I'd still buy in at $1.7k if I had significant extra fiat right now
(which I don't, I'm terrified of holding $ or long term right now)
i freely admit i might be wrong and only a fool tries to pick a top. i guess i'm a fool and like to pick corners. only b/c those are the places to make maximum profit. i got the Dow turn perfectly and got most of this selloff and am waiting to reshort after a several day bounce which probably begins today.
the straight down drop in the indices says to me the PPT has stepped back b/c they have an objective; get the USD back up and smash PM's. tinfoil i know.