Quote from: eleuthria on August 09, 2011, 02:17:43 PM

Quote from: Mad7Scientist on August 09, 2011, 02:30:13 AM

I want to know if the pool is being bounced up and down on purpose (with the down days likely being a little more down than the up days are up) to try to make it more difficult to see what is going on.

So eleuthria says that during difficulty 1563027 there is a 90% chance the number of blocks found should have been higher so 10% chance they were this low by chance. That's because that +70% and other high luck days that followed the low days made up for a lot of it.

If some more positive luck days are added to the pool it could be made to look just fine without any missing blocks problems at all. But the low days and high days will remain there as evidence that manipulation -- such as stealing and then a cover up -- took place.

Not very many bitcoins were stolen over all so far. In fact the estimated amount of bitcoins stolen could go to 0 in the future if more positive luck days are added to make up for it.

Alright, I'm done stating just hard data. Now for facts. You're either: 1)A troll, 2) a moron, 3) mentally handicapped, or a combination of the 3. Let's find out:

1) After being banned from the channel you start calling me Tom Williams in #bitcoin-police. So the troll part is definitely there.
2) You think that the "estimated amount of bitcoins stolen could go to 0 if more positive luck days are added", which certainly qualifies you as a moron.
3) You seem to think I can just "create" luck/blocks to hide theft, which definitely makes you mentally handicapped.

I took the time to get the total share counts for the difficulties BTC Guild has kept track of. Over the recorded difficulties at BTC Guild, the odds of our overall luck for the past 1400+ blocks is slightly better than 1 in 5. It sucks, its bad, but it could be worse, and certainly isn't some 0.6% chance. Like JoelKatz said, you're cherry picking a set of blocks that were already known to have been bad luck.

For your "creating" blocks comment: Want some proof its impossible? Our blocks are claimed by block number. It is easy to audit that we truly mined the blocks we're claiming. Go to the block explorer link. Look at the generation amount/wallet. Every 24 hours our pool servers move the funds to 1MbSn15MZWNbkNWF72KopyQenCV2zdcWvr before they become available for payouts. It is impossible for us to claim a block we didn't actually mine, meaning it is impossible to fake positive luck. The audit trail is there for anybody who wants to look.

could not say it better myself +1