Quote from: btcbug on August 19, 2018, 03:52:04 PM

Very interesting stuff guys. I see Shelby edited his Steemit post and he now considers two alternative possibilities:

1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.

2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.

Note he apparently made those edits before @infofronts tantalizing post in this thread.

Quote from: noormcs5 on August 19, 2018, 11:42:58 AM

Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen.

He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.

Whereas, if @infofronts scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.

However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofronts excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.

This is one of the most legit forecasts I've seen. There have been too many blind " 100k by 2k20!!!" forecasts that I stopped taking them seriously.

I've seen a few analyses that take into account the depreciation until the next halvening, but is bitcoin really going to gain after that? There are a lot of assumptions in this chart, namely that the cycle follows that same pattern, and more importantly that introduction of financial market tools like futures, ETFs and being considered for a major stock exchange don't have any impact on it. Statistics rarely lie though...