Quote from: Pursuer on August 21, 2018, 07:25:10 AM

Quote from: jseverson on August 21, 2018, 05:51:05 AM

Quote from: zinson01 on August 21, 2018, 02:55:37 AM

You cannot just predict a dump by looking at someone moving their coins to an exchange. There are other possibilities too, like selling them for their own profit or may be the previous exchange was not preferable to them. Anyways, we cannot do anything about it right now rather than observing the situation.

That's how speculation works. There really aren't any tried and tested methods to predict how the Bitcoin market will move, so people try to look for anything and everything they can use. A move like this could actually be significant depending on the context (like Roger Ver moving 25k coins to an exchange last November lol), but this one obviously isn't. This mentality about whales being able to freely control the market has become a self-fulfilling prophecy where we allow them to affect the market simply by moving their coins.

but we can't really call that speculation because speculation is supposed to be based on facts not based on guesses. speculation itself can be a guess but the basis must be facts. in this case when you see coins move you would be making 2 guesses and them making a conclusion. the first guess that nobody mentioned is that you are guessing it moved to "an exchange". the fact is you don't know where they moved. it may just be to another wallet, or it may even be sold off the market not on exchanges. and the second guess that others also said is that you are guessing they were "sold"! for example when someone moves coins to an exchange it may be to put up a fake sell wall preventing the rise so that they can BUY more.

And it's on an exchange that only allows users to take positions rather than "dump" coins.

Speculation in Bitcoin is even more obscure because of so much hearsay like the OP saying that a massive dump was coming but the price only moved a couple hundred. This market is too wild to have stable evidence in a majority of the cases. A lot of it comes from news pages that want to enforce a certain perception, or from forum posts with dubious validity.

Besides, this isn't even that big of a deal. If someone wants to sell that many coins, that's fine. They're theirs to do what they want with them.