Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

perhaps you ought to consider quoting me as i am the only one i know that had predicted this manipulated central bank induced USD rally weeks ahead of it happening

The only one?

Quote from: miscreanity on September 12, 2011, 10:55:38 PM

We did agree on the dollar rising...

Along the same lines, I could predict an earthquake in California and claim that I knew it was coming when it finally happens. Predicting the timing is exceedingly difficult, so I prefer preparation instead. That way, the trap can be sprung when the conditions are right; the reward reaped when there's little to no fight left in the move.

Our disagreement lies with gold anyway, not the USD. I've added a few quotes, but it's often easier to find precise instances of one's own posts - I'd recommending finding the exact points from your own quotes as well as the ones I dig up. That promotes a less biased view and it means I won't have to spend hours going through the thread.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 09, 2011, 01:37:27 PM

as long as the USD stays in its consolidation pattern and doesn't breakdown i don't see gold going much higher. if the USD starts to ramp like i think it will, gold should go down.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 09, 2011, 02:12:23 PM

the straight down drop in the indices says to me the PPT has stepped back b/c they have an objective; get the USD back up and smash PM's. tinfoil i know.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 09, 2011, 05:13:43 PM

FOMC should not say anything more about QE. gold should tank and USD do a moonshot.

if i'm wrong i'll admit it. no guts, no glory.

From August 9th, gold went up about $100/oz. Nothing was said directly; everything was deferred to this month. The USD rise was delayed by a few days.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 09, 2011, 08:53:29 PM

Quote from: S3052 on August 09, 2011, 08:50:44 PM

@cypherdoc:

You are soooo right.

Gold will surprise almost everyone when it goes down hard against the USD. We have have seen already the top today (went short at 1766 $ today) . But even if not, it will start from a bit higher levels and still has huge downside.
Based on my chart analysis, 1300-1400 is the first target, but will fall soon to lead then to 1000-1100. And then we will see. If this does not hold, 600-800 are next.

ah, S3052 my favorite tech analyst!

yes, i think this will be the short of a lifetime.

Had to include this one - a priceless piece from S3052. Is the idea to wait longer for the fall to happen? Another California 'quake prediction.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 10, 2011, 01:48:47 AM

BAC is going to be the next Lehman.

Winner! This one was a solid call.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 10, 2011, 03:45:27 AM

we are now entering phase 2 of the crisis and you're going to see demand for USD increase significantly from here as Europe starts to implode.

The distinction here is that gold is not included in the equation. The USD appreciates against the Euro, and both are depreciating against gold.

It isn't the fact that this dollar rally happened that's interesting, but the extent to which it has risen in such a short time.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

in addition, on 9/6 at 9:24pm, in this thread, minutes after the selloff began i called attention to this as supportive of my theory. Dan doesn't post on his blog until 10:44pm over an hour later.

Being first to scream "FIRE!" doesn't mean there is one.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

this is old info and has been already invalidated. any technical trader knows this.

Can a technician explain why there are so many conflicting technical signals and so much confusion? Is support the result of a line on a chart or real-world supply & demand? Can that distinction be made from price alone?

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

the whole fundamental basis of the gold trade has been to escape a falling USD. now that its rising and looks to have broken out to the upside how can you justify further gold buying?

Then why would Europeans be buying gold as the dollar rose against the Euro? Is the entire world buying gold just because of a falling USD? Correlation is not causation. Beware of such linear thinking.

There was no US dollar in ancient Rome. Gold protects against instability, especially debasement and fraud.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

putting up all these bullish posts from permabulls doesn't in the least impress me. you will not find an analysis like mine in this thread anywhere in the world. how do i know this? its b/c these thoughts are truly none but my own as a result of years of experience trading and shorting stocks and clear, independent, non linear thinking and game theory. i do read the pundits at times but always with a discerning eye. they are to a man bullish. there is so much more that has gone into my analysis such as intuition and anticipation that i can't articulate via words. and yes, i am humble enough to fully admit i could be wrong.

This thread has more readers than the two of us, but I'll be sure to try harder in another lifetime where impressing you matters to me.

Acknowledging those whom we've learned from keeps us from making outrageous claims. Also, I do not have the time to produce every chart and study on my own, so I find those who excel at what they do. It takes time to sift through the chaff to find the wheat. Ah, the magic of specialization and outsourcing!

I could be wrong as well, mostly in the short-term... but I doubt it.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

i disagree that this bull has to end in a further parabolic move.

... you all now realize that CB's have drawn a big red bullseye on all your foreheads.

That's reasonable to assume; it doesn't have to end in a parabolic rise. It's the probability of that happening which is very high.

The banks have been targeting gold for centuries because it clearly shows when they've buggered things up. What else is new?

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

Dan Norcini's article to me is a game changer. the creeping realization that CB's are acting to kill gold should not result in permabulls thinking that just b/c they are aware of the manipulation, then it won't happen. the better response is to sit up, understand the implications of this, and get out of the way now. they will throw the economy under the bus in the name of self preservation. suspicion will turn to realization will turn to doubt will turn to fear will turn to capitulation. this is the psychology of the situation.

See my last statement about gold being targeted. Understand that central banks are net buyers of gold. The manipulations are to keep the power of gold out of the hands of too many whom the banks can't easily control, assuming a powers-that-be conspiracy hat. On the other hand, the banks are also struggling to survive and thus will attack what they see as a threat to their existence: gold.

Look at the psychology outside of the US. It is not as you describe.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 13, 2011, 03:15:13 AM

could the end of the bull in pm's partially result from a new technology staring us directly in the face; Bitcoin?

Yes.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 14, 2011, 03:00:41 AM

watch out. looks to me like the resumption of the $DXY ramp and USD crosses starts tonite and thru tomorrow.

Very likely. The fraud will continue to the bitter end. Of course, that's still all paper games.

I really don't think it's a good idea to be trading at all right now except to maintain hedges, especially with the FOMC meeting coming up so soon. If you haven't prepared by now, batten down the hatches and ignore the markets for a bit.

Because it's ofter easier to link an article and it can be better said by another: Richard Russell at King World News on the anti-gold sentiment.