ty was right, gold has entered the blowoff parabola IMO and has broken up and out of the longterm trend channel. this IMO is a terminal ending pattern and screams caution. even if you're a bull you should be taking down some positions to profit just in case. thats prudent. the question is when will it break? this is when trading gets fun but also painful. gold is going straight up and that is a huge warning sign for me esp. in light of the carnage elsewhere.
Yup gold has broken out of its longterm trend channel. I'm concerned.
Lets say gold is at $1750 and you expect a 20% decline, so target is $1400. I would wait for the downtrend before going short. Even at $1700 you would capture 17.6% of the decline, a more than generous return by any metric (you could easily increase that return with leverage obviously). So you missed out on the top 2.4%, at least you didn't get steamrolled if gold trends higher.
I know you're a fan of Mish although I'm not sure how long you've been following him. In the early days, Mish was predicting the housing bubble and subsequent pop before most. He was spot on with his analysis. Problem is he was YEARS early with that prediction. You can try to time the market perfectly but I find very few individuals who are able to do it successfully. And most who seem to be able to do so, will only tell you about the time they've predicted successfully and not all the times they've been burned.
You've obviously done very well for yourself so I'm not trying to tell you how to invest your money but that's my investment stance.