Quote from: CurbsideProphet on August 11, 2011, 08:14:22 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 11, 2011, 07:46:17 PM

Quote from: CurbsideProphet on August 11, 2011, 07:31:42 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 11, 2011, 05:39:38 PM

ty was right, gold has entered the blowoff parabola IMO and has broken up and out of the longterm trend channel. this IMO is a terminal ending pattern and screams caution. even if you're a bull you should be taking down some positions to profit just in case. thats prudent. the question is when will it break? this is when trading gets fun but also painful. gold is going straight up and that is a huge warning sign for me esp. in light of the carnage elsewhere.

Yup gold has broken out of its longterm trend channel. I'm concerned.

Lets say gold is at $1750 and you expect a 20% decline, so target is $1400. I would wait for the downtrend before going short. Even at $1700 you would capture 17.6% of the decline, a more than generous return by any metric (you could easily increase that return with leverage obviously). So you missed out on the top 2.4%, at least you didn't get steamrolled if gold trends higher.

I know you're a fan of Mish although I'm not sure how long you've been following him. In the early days, Mish was predicting the housing bubble and subsequent pop before most. He was spot on with his analysis. Problem is he was YEARS early with that prediction. You can try to time the market perfectly but I find very few individuals who are able to do it successfully. And most who seem to be able to do so, will only tell you about the time they've predicted successfully and not all the times they've been burned.

You've obviously done very well for yourself so I'm not trying to tell you how to invest your money but that's my investment stance.

you're very wise. btw, i went long ERX and TNA yesterday but just closed them out for a nice profit. i hope you wrote those puts on WFC, up 7.60%? Cheesy

i've followed Mish since 2006? he's good but kooky at times. i think he drinks.

no guts no glory on this short which could be the one of a lifetime. don't try this at home!!!

Nope didn't write the puts unfortunately. Was hoping for a spike in the VIX today or a decline in the market, neither of which happened. I did buy a bunch of LEAP calls on BAC yesterday @ $2. Sold 'em today for $2.25. 12.5% gain for a 1-day trade, yeah I can live with that.

BAC scares the crap out of me but short-term it looked really oversold so I rolled the dice. I probably should have held longer but I'm leaving for Vegas tomorrow so I don't really want to worry about the market, plus making trades while drunk is only going to end up in trouble.

nice. LOL, i'm heading out early tomorrow for Alaska/Seattle for salmon fishing so i'll be out for a week or so too.

i think we get a week or so of a bounce. holding shorts on PM's from today. damn, my covering yesterday caused today's dump!!!