Quote from: franky1 on September 10, 2018, 02:34:33 AM

Quote from: pixie85 on September 09, 2018, 06:59:38 PM

Quote from: franky1 on September 09, 2018, 05:50:37 PM

right now 10%+ 10%- are not hype or fear. they are just normal waves..

Are you really calling that thing that happened at the end of July a normal thing? To me it was fear at its finest. The price broke out and acted like it was about to establish a higher low and then when it corrected it didn't go half the way. It went far below the point from where it started to rise which means that people oversold. Not onl;y those who bought into that rise sold but also those who were holding at the downtrend, before it even broke out to the upside.

every day there are ups and downs. if you are basing the new bottom by a price movement of a few days/weeks then you need to stretch your chart out further.. like i said +10% are normal swings. not new base setting milestones

i base my "value" on cost of acquisition.(the low/bottomline of a long term) which is basically the average cost of mining a bitcoin. and the low of the market (i ignore ATH)
anything above that is a speculation bubble area of hot air and hype.

what you need to know is that before June pools were using ASICS that had a unit price that was 2.5x more than the post June ASICS batch. basically it got cheaper to mine bitcoin. but now we are seeing the hashrate/difficulty counter that, thus raising the acquisition cost back to pre june

the overal average acquisition cost of traders and miners from november 2017 to now is $5,800ish+
if yes im saying it IF the price went below $5800 then i would have said that it was over sold. and the price was UNDER VALUED. but guess what. i would not fear that. for me. that would be DISCOUNT day. and a great time to buy.
(i hold MANY coins yet i dont fear when markets go down.)

now with this week we are seeing hashrates above 50exa evening out the event of junes asic hardware batch price change and seeing the price today is $6200+ then i see it as $400 of bubble/speculation padding above acquisition costs of 2018.

things to remember. the ATH is nothing special. at the peak only 1 person took advantage of the very top. but everyone can take advantage of the bottom. so dont stand at the top of a mountain looking down. stand at the bottom looking up.. this fresh mindset of looking up will make you a happier person when trading

oh. and if you too want to do some maths.
in october we will see another batch of new asics that will bring the cost per bitcoin into question depending on the hashrates rate by november(when users receive and start mining for less hardware cost) to see if there is another impact to the price.
im hoping to see a 90exa by october to keep to a ~$6k underlying value.
that way bitcoins long term growth stays on a yearly positive rise
2016:>300
2017:>900
2018:>5800

as for the 'price' volitility above the sea level of $5800. to me thats just waves that i like to surf that i can make a few percent a day playing the ups and downs. satisified that the sea level remains above $5800

Awesome answer. I agree with you. Bitcoin will be success.)