Spot on.

But, of course the implication is that other companies not only can , but at some point will do it too. Today they may be charging $10/GH (or $3 in preorders), but thats only because they can, as miners are willing to pay that; in fact, if they dropped much lower, they would be even more unable to satisfy market demand. But that wont last, as difficulty ramps up, even absent any price competition, all these vendors will be competing with difficulty, and thus with themselves.

Its inevitable prices will come down, to the levels you are projecting, and IMO, much, much lower, up to point where they approach marginal profitability. Where that point is, you may be better positioned than me to estimate, but wherever it is, my fear for you is that this will happen faster than what you are projecting. $1/GH sounds like a terrific deal today, but I doubt it will sound good at all in august.

Maybe if nearly all the competitors continue to stumble and are unable to ship really high volumes even by summer, you will have a chance. Otherwise, I fear its either you or your customers who will end up losing money as margins will be too thin to recoup the NRE that all your competitors already recouped.. Maybe you have some trick up your sleeve, but if not, I fear its too late to start another asic.

Good luck anyway