Quote from: BTCevo on September 12, 2018, 04:00:08 PM

Quote from: Radiante on September 10, 2018, 11:55:11 PM

Quote from: BTCevo on September 09, 2018, 02:09:30 PM

Quote from: Radiante on September 05, 2018, 06:09:59 PM

Quote from: BTCevo on September 05, 2018, 12:12:08 AM

Actually it is not free money because you need to complete the quest in order to get paid. It is different from what you said, but if someone lucky enough to get profit then it must be free money then

Yes, of course, but almost all promotions have a house edge that benefits the players.

Is this how the house edge really work? I do not think any house edge would actually benefits the players.

Take the "Colonial Challenge" of this week ("Make 3 winning bets with any of these numbers: 13.31, 24.42, 57.75, or 68.86"), you are still playing at a -1% house edge, but you are going to get a prize if you hit those numbers. If you play at the minimum giveaway bet (100 satoshis), your house edge is actually positive in this event.

To make it easy to calculate, let's pretend that, instead of "Make 3 winning bets with any of these numbers: 13.31, 24.42, 57.75, or 68.86" it is ""Make 1 winning bet with any of these numbers: 13.31, 24.42, 57.75, or 68.86"; the chance of getting any of those numbers is 0,04%, if the prize is divided between 50 players (0.08BTC/50 = 0.0016BTC each), and you play with 100 satoshis, and you bet "lower than 98", then you house edge in 10000 dices is:

9776 WINS = +1 satoshi
200 LOSES = -100 satoshis
4 WINS+CHALLENGE = 160001 satoshis
TOTAL = 629776 satoshis positive.
629776/10000= Actual HE is 62% in favor of the player.

Of course the HE varies depending of the promotion and how many players participate of the giveaway, and the strategy you use to achieve it.

But all of these numbers is only assumption which we can either hit it lower than 10k bets or even higher than 10k bets. And to think that you only have 200 lose when you are trying this. I do not really think that it is really work, although you have this calculation does not really mean that you are going to hit it base on these strong calculation

Anyway how about if it more than 50 players hit? I think with this big site, it is pretty easy to get more than 50 players to join this +EV club event

It is not assumptions, only probability under certain conditions (for example, betting the minimum 100 satoshis to achieve the challenge): on top of the normal prize, you get an additional prize thanks to the giveaway, actually making the House Edge negative (and positive for the player)
Even if you have 1000 players participating, the House Edge will still favor the player, in 10000 dices the results will be:

9776 WINS = +1 satoshi (9776*1= +9776)
200 LOSES = -100 satoshis (200*-100= -20000)
4 WINS+CHALLENGE = (0.08BTC/1000 players=0.00008BTC/8000 satoshis each) [(4*1)+(8000*4)= 32004]
TOTAL = 9776-20000+32004 = 21780 satoshis positive
21780/10000= Actual HE is still 2,178% in favor of the player.