Quote from: tee-rex on September 16, 2018, 05:27:19 AM

Quote from: Herbert2020 on September 15, 2018, 05:02:56 AM

Quote from: tee-rex on September 08, 2018, 03:35:23 PM

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

i mostly disagree because looking at the previous 2 halving cases i can see that the talks may have started a long time before the halving (like your topic for instance) but the real effect on the market and the price started about a month or two prior to the halving itself. all that "talk" may be considered the build up towards that point but without any effect themselves.

I can't believe that you were really looking at the previous 2 halving events with your own eyes. I don't know about the first halving you refer to, which should have happened in 2012, as I wasn't there and can't say anything. But I witnessed the second coming, um, halving, and can say things didn't happen like you describe them.

First off, the prices started rising in early September, 2015, which was like 10 months before halving. They went exponential in the first half of 2016. Then, just before the halving, maybe 2-3 weeks prior the event, there was a massive correction of about 20-30%. After that, Bitfinex got hacked on August 2, which likely postponed the recovery due to over 100k bitcoins being sold before (through massive shorting) and right after the hack. The real growth which we all witnessed in 2017 started again in September, this time in 2016.

all the fluctuations, corrections big and small rises that happened months before the halving (llike the 10 month rise you mentioned) can not be attributed to halving! if you do that then you are saying that bitcoin has nothing else going on for it, adoption is nothing, ... and it only has halving and price only rises because of it! that doesn't make any sense to me!

as for the rise itself it was in no way exponential in the times you mentions.
10 months prior to halving meaning first half of 2016 price went up slowly from $400 to $500 this is a 25% rise in 6 months in a bull market after a very long downtrend from Mt Gox bubble. this had nothing to do with halving.
then the real Halving Rise started on May 25-26 (1 month and 2 weeks before halving) and price went up from $500ish to $770 which is a 55% rise in 1 month. then fell down about a week before the halving.
the 2012 halving was similar although not as big. by that time price was recovering from a similar bubble of nearly the same size as 2013 bubble but it took much shorter time to recover (something like this year). then the halving hype started and pushed the price from $9.2 to $12.99 (41% in about 1 month) then we had a correction to about $10.90

Quote

Quote from: Herbert2020 on September 15, 2018, 05:02:56 AM

not to mention that we will have a lot more going on for bitcoin and a lot more rises before we even reach halving. think of halving in 2020 as the Futures market in 2017. price was already $9000 when the Futures speculation came and price went up to $20k but it had gone up from $900 (10x) already before that.... halving will be the same. we will have rises then the halving will be a big shoot up and a mini bubble.

Futures had absolutely no effect on bitcoin prices, apart from some hype, perhaps. This topic has been beaten to death already. They are all cash-settled and in no way can influence real markets. Anyway, the volume in these futures was miserable to make any impact in any case.

that is exactly my point! it is the hype of Futures that made the big rise. halving hype is no different. the real effect of halving which is different from hype comes afterwards with at least 1 month delay.