When I see an analysis on where BTC prices are going based on news I immediately go back and find a new topic especially when it is news related to ETFs as etfs really don't have an affect to us regular investors in the market. An analysis is made by either Fundamental or Technical analysis but if you are predicting prices based on news I wouldn't call it as an analysis in the first place as there is no even factual basis with the numbers you have given, it just looks like you have thrown a random number with your post.
A lot of people will not agree with you. Since, unlike the stock market or Forex, the crypto-currency market is weakly subject to technical analysis.
You can not always even predict the change of trend, since the fundamental factor will be the news background. If the news comes out, for example, something like the fact that on some sort of exchange from inactive to the present moment of the purse they listed many bitcoins, then the probability of the trend being the opposite from what you see on the chart is high). News drives the minds of people. People manage money. And money controls the price. This is how the market moves. The price always follows the investment. And it so happened that more people believe it is news, not graphs.
I believe that it is necessary to combine technical analysis, scalping, ownership of indicators and news background. Then you will see the market completely. But the priority is the news background. At least because there are a lot of players on the crypto market who do not have financial education and do not have a lot of knowledge in trading strategies. They trade in their own way. And if such people were few - they would simply lose money. But when there are many such people - they move the market and make you lose money.)