Quote from: Bardman on September 19, 2018, 07:42:03 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on September 17, 2018, 04:00:57 PM

Quote from: Bardman on September 17, 2018, 12:01:03 AM

''previous bear markets'' there was really only 1 previous bear market, bitcoin is too new to look at the past. The space is way too different now than it was back then, more coins, more volume, more exchanges, better exchanges, potential good news, etc etc. There is no reason to think this bear trend will continue for 2 years.

were you around in 2014? "but there's so much good news! this space is nothing like it was in 2011!" new exchanges were launching and the chinese exchanges were flourishing. new merchants were coming online. crowdsales like mastercoin and ethereum were sucking up coin supply. and yet price kept falling.

there were also bear markets in the second half of 2011 and 2012, and also in mid-2013. the bear market you're thinking of was just the longest one, the only multi-year bear market. in my observation, the market moves much slower (in both directions) as time goes on, particularly after 2013. the post-bubble bear markets are likely to be more prolonged now as a result. i'd be happy to be proven wrong on this, but there's not much to go on besides historical price action and cycle analysis.

Because that was the only true bear market, going downwards for a few months cannot be considered a bear market.

bull markets = uptrends and bear markets = downtrends. you're just diluting the definition so it has very little meaning. if you zoom out far enough, bitcoin is simply in a bull market for 9 years now, with no bear market ever. that tells us absolutely nothing regarding TA or FA.

what you're doing is very similar. "bear markets have to last multiple years, therefore there was only one bear market, and because mt gox, it's really unlikely we'll have another bear market." sorry but that's a weak analysis. your logic is circular.

2010-2011 was 8 months of rising followed by 6 months of falling. was the 2011 bubble not a bull market, because it was only months long? was the 94% crash that followed really not a bear market, because you invented some arbitrary time requirement? really? Cheesy

also, regarding that time requirement, any thoughts on this:

Quote from: figmentofmyass on September 17, 2018, 04:00:57 PM

in my observation, the market moves much slower (in both directions) as time goes on, particularly after 2013. the post-bubble bear markets are likely to be more prolonged now as a result.

just like the 2014-15 bear market was the longest in history, the 2015-17 bull market was the longest in history. everything takes longer now.

Quote from: Bardman on September 19, 2018, 07:42:03 PM

The MTgox hack at the time made it much worse for the market to recover after already a huge crash. So obviously the situation is far different now.

why do you blame gox for the length of time it took to recover? sure, the situation is different now. it's been 4+ years. why does that mean a long term bear market is unlikely?