Quote from: wobber on January 19, 2014, 05:47:43 PM

Quote from: proudhon on January 19, 2014, 04:39:32 PM

Quote from: igorr on January 19, 2014, 04:02:35 PM

The manufacturer mining hardware for a few months, will no longer have any interest to mine bitcoin and production any ASIC hardware.

Exactly! This will at least push the price to standard deviated trend line based on the failed exponential growth curve. That means the price should fall to around $100 in the short medium term optimistic bear case, but will probably go lower in the fourth quarter of bitcoin's fiscal year.

By 2015, the price might, and I say "might", stabilize in the healthy zone (can't provide a chart right now), which is between $1 and $2. This, of course, assumes a conservative bullish bear case, so we could see much worse.

By 2016, no bitcoin anymore, and this can be seen in some of the latest confirmed bad news sources, mostly in Chinese and Russian (See Peter R's recent reporting).

All this leads to an inevitable conclusion: EVERYONE MUST SHOTR BITCOIN at the highest margin levels.

I think you over-evaluate the effects of negative news. Their power is not enough to push price to $1-2. But 100s is definitely a target for 2014.

What is missing on that equation as far as I can see is the fact that bitcoin is getting more and more popular and the earth population is about 7.1 billion...