Ninjastic
PostEdited versionsQuotes to this post
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
bones261
on 23/09/2018, 16:01:51 UTC
Quote from: bitserve on September 23, 2018, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: bones261 on September 23, 2018, 03:44:56 PM
Quote from: itod on September 23, 2018, 02:29:41 PM
Quote from: AR_fan on September 23, 2018, 01:30:15 PM
6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019

With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply:
a) turn off the machines, or
b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level.

Guess which one is more likely to happen.

Bitmain just announced that it has finally developed a better Asic chip. It will be 42J/TH. Bitfury also announce that they have a new Asic chip which gets 55mW/GH. https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-ceo-announces-new-7nm-bitcoin-mining-chip/ I put in some figures, and it appears at the current difficulty and 5 cents/kwH price in China, that brings the electricity cost down to less than $1,500 USD to produce 1 BTC. If the difficulty doubles, it will still be less then $3000 USD to produce a BTC. And I suspect some of the larger mining farms in China are getting a better deal than 5 cents/kwH. Therefore, the break-even floor is going to be lowered.
However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.  Cheesy

Are you taking into account the cost of the new devices and operational costs in your ROI calculation or only the electricity cost (which I also presume it may be way lower than 5 cents/khw for some)?

No, I didn't factor that in. Mainly because Bitmain and Bitfury are most likely to deploy many of their new ASICs on their own farms, and I believe their cost to produce is way less than the price they give to the public. Also, the larger farms that are independent(?) of Bitmain will probably get a deep discount due to volume. I suspect that most large mining farms in China will be able to recoup their equipment cost in a few months, if that long.