Quote from: Lloydie on January 21, 2014, 05:02:34 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on January 21, 2014, 04:44:22 AM

Quote from: Lloydie on January 21, 2014, 04:17:48 AM

Quote from: buck19 on January 21, 2014, 02:58:57 AM

Quote from: avabit on January 21, 2014, 01:49:01 AM

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys. So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff? That is a really good return, IMHO. Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips). I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining. Either way AM wins).

Very bullish, and as a shareholder, I share the dream. But until we see a working chip, its just a dream.

I should add risks too:
1. Someone develops an even more efficient chip/mining process
2. FC walks away
3. Something happens to FC
4. Someone steals chip design
5. AM goes private or is acquired

I could list risks all day but they just stress me out Wink

prefer to "hold and dream"