Quote from: chriswilmer on January 21, 2014, 06:45:42 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on January 21, 2014, 05:22:05 AM

Quote from: superduh on January 21, 2014, 05:17:28 AM

Quote from: Lloydie on January 21, 2014, 04:17:48 AM

Quote from: buck19 on January 21, 2014, 02:58:57 AM

Quote from: avabit on January 21, 2014, 01:49:01 AM

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys. So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff? That is a really good return, IMHO. Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips). I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining. Either way AM wins).

if transaction fees pick up........................ that helps

Still not looking good on that front:

https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees

Why not?

Give it time. I think tx volume could quickly go to 1000x what it is today (within 5 years). Might only lead to 10x tx fees because btc/usd will go up 100x in the meantime.

The worry is tx volume is less than is was a year ago? How can that be right with all these new retailers starting to accept bitcoin? Or we talking the SR influence here or something else entirely?