Quote from: kiba on February 10, 2011, 03:09:01 AM

Also, I am a freelancer. Been busy looking for work in this small economy.

Then you're wasting your time... Bitcoin is only effective for people who want anonymous and free transfer of money. If you're out to gain wealth for the sake of it... so be it. If you're out to make some money off of the rising price of the Bitcoin, then you're a pox on this economy.

Quote from: Hal on February 10, 2011, 05:10:30 AM

IMO one way to get a handle on a reasonable value for 1 bitcoin is via this formula:

probability Bitcoin ultimately succeeds * value of 1 bitcoin if it succeeds

This is dependant on a macro nature of the economy, which is impossible since it is only one economy you're looking at. Unless you're investing in millions of these economies (of which there are not that many) then it's highly improbable to pay off, although your estimates are completely off; I'd say that the chance of the bitcoin catching on is very high, just how much will it catch on? That's the real question.

Quote from: Hal on February 10, 2011, 05:10:30 AM

Bitcoin has the potential to become the dominant currency for large-scale electronic transactions worldwide. If this happens, bitcoins could be worth millions of dollars each.

Perhaps, although the value of the Bitcoin means absolutely nothing; it's the stability and overall rate of increase of value that makes the difference.

Quote from: Hal on February 10, 2011, 05:10:30 AM

I see the recent increase in value as a rise in the consensus probability that Bitcoin will succeed.

I don't, I see it as the result of an increasing population of Bitcoin users, increasing demand for buying Bitcoins and the nature of the supply of Bitcoin relative to this. However, I see the increasing population of Bitcoin and its support to be directly related to popular belief that it will work among its users.

Quote from: kiba on February 10, 2011, 05:23:53 AM

Quote from: Veltas on February 10, 2011, 03:40:55 AM

I hope not, but I'm more sceptical. I feel that we will lose value dramatically if we have too many people investing because of the value and strength of bitcoin.

The investment could be followed by new business entries, or not.

Not sure I understand what you're getting at here. Are you saying that more business relying on Bitcoin would counter the effect that many long-term investors selling their Bitcoin would have to the Bitcoin's value.