Quote from: bitserve on October 05, 2018, 10:58:00 PM

Quote from: kurious on October 05, 2018, 10:14:52 PM

Quote from: bitserve on October 05, 2018, 07:55:45 PM

Quote from: kurious on October 05, 2018, 07:35:54 PM

Quote from: goldkingcoiner on October 05, 2018, 07:20:12 PM

Quote from: kurious on October 05, 2018, 05:32:46 PM

Seems awful quiet 'round here.

Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..? We should have frisked him on the way out.

Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase.

It might go on for a while, but don't write Bitcoin off just yet!

There are only 21 million bitcoins and most have already been mined which is not enough for every entity that wants one. If you see how many exchanges, institutions and governments are now forced to take notice, it can't be stopped or ignored.

Yes, it looks flat just now - but don't think the fireworks are over. They aren't yet... Not by a long chalk.

We have some pain still to go through, but there will be prices in future that will dwarf the last ATH. This has always have been so, and I can only see many thousands of reasons why this process shall be seen again.

What are you talking about? Everybody knows Bitcoin is dead now. There is no hope.

Damn - I forgot to be pessimistic to bring on the capitulation, sorry! Wink

But you know what? I think history is not simply a fractal pattern every time. I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not. And those, new to crypto who are unsure - are just waiting to see what happens.

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal.

Hairy (and others) who I have tended to agree with, look correct - that is; that we need a crypto capitulation, a 'crypto winter'. So, we have to see what happens in January to confirm the pattern of 2014 / 2015. And this may come to pass, yes.

But think: if people assume this, but if after January, things are NOT the same - then they will get nervous about missing the chance to accumulate. The LAST chance to accumulate? Then it's a game of chicken. No one can drive Bitcoin to zero, there is a base level with too many buyers to get even close. But it will only take a few funds, or one country to see BTC as 'too good to miss' for the shit to get real.

FOMO, when there are only a few coins left? It will come, of course it will. When? Either after the fractal of a January dip ends the bear market, or (perhaps) the absence of the January dip. Either way, it seems we might not have not got that long to go. Any recession in the fiat economy is another factor that will move people away from trust in the legacy system and towards real, hard money: Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin dead? No, of course not. And if everyone knows that, then of course, ultimately its value can only increase. Such is the genius of its design.

Do what the fuck you want with your life and your resources, but one thing that makes ultimate sense is to make sure you keep hold of a little Bitcoin. No matter what.

/end of sermon

That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction. The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.

Sure, it's a valid and fairly widely held view. I guess I am saying, there might be more people wanting 'in' than can be accommodated and that the capitulation we all assume is 'necessary' in actually why it will not happen. Maybe, so many expect it that it will happen (so they know it's time to get in) that others will front-run it and mean it won't happen at all.

January is an obvious point if we are following past years - most of them have been at least an annual low. But if it isn't....? We are also overdue for a recession. If the world financial system wobbles again, and the world is hardly looking stable, well...

I am being contrarian, but I see 230 exchanges and think - 'jeez, there just arn't enough coins for this much interest'. Just a point of view, yes - but maybe we're wrong and that capitulation has already happened....