Quote from: Majormax on October 14, 2018, 11:55:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 14, 2018, 02:10:29 AM

BTCs price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k = Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%

$3k to $5k = 10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k = 10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k = 15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k = 15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k = 15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k = 12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k = 5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill = Less than 1%      Less than 5%

...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

That is a fair way of putting it, and yes, I would broadly agree with those 'guesstimates'.

'upwardly skewed bellcurve' : I also like that term ! It can be termed bullish, even though there are very significant probabilities of loss in the next few years.

It does seem that frequently there are quite a few of us who may agree on the overall parameters, but then we also might get into some pretty BIG QUIBBLES regarding particulars... and especially we may get caught up on more loud arguing during higher periods of volatility when it can be quite difficult to get bearings on both what is going on and how any of us might think about what is going on while we are caught up in it.

Regarding your point about "significant probabilities of loss in the next few years," I largely agree with you that upside potential for bitcoin would likely remain significantly intact, even if from here on we suffer tremendously for two to three years. It may be worse for getting back UP if either $2k or $1k support is broken for any significant period of time - which surely, I place the odds pretty low (at least at this time) for those kinds of levels of support to be broken (even though certainly not impossible).

By the way, I am surprised that you largely agree with my numbers.... I would have thought that if you independently put your own numbers into those same slots, you are going to come out a bit different and even higher percentages for the possible downside? Yes or no? or does my guestimation range completely capture your current thinking on the topic?