Quote from: JoTheKhan on January 23, 2014, 04:12:09 PM

we will possibly (most likely) go down to .0005.

I respect your opinion but look at it this way.

If ACtM can mine 1% of the bitcoins mined in 2014 - in other words if we can take and hold 1.25% of the global hash by beginning April - then we will mine 13,140 coins in 2014.
At current prices that is 13Mill dollars.

But lets assume an average price of Bitcoin of 5k USD in 2014 (10k USD target is widely talked about now for 2014) - so we will generate 5,000x13,140=65.7Million USD.
So Holding just 1.25% of global hash from April will make us 65.7 Mill USD in 2014.

Lets round that down to 50Mill in pure profit from mining.
Add 40Mill USD profit from chip orders for our 28nm chip in 2014
Add 10 Mill profit from chip orders for our 55nm chip
Add 25 Mill profit in miner sales for 2014.

You have a yearly profit of 125Mill USD.

Now to repay 0.0025BTC per share (10Mill publicly held shares) you need about 25Mill USD in todays price. But taking into account price rise of BTC through the year by say begining Q3 we would have 0.0025 paid back in full at a cost of 50Mill USD.

So the next 75Mill USD profit will be split between all shares (25Mill shares) giving a further div payout for the year of around 0.0006.

So in total each publicly held share will recieve approx 0.0031BTC in divs in 2014.

Now - a fair share price can be worked out when you know the expected total yearly divs. That's how professional investors value a stock.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield

So if 0.0031 is paid to each share in a year then the listed share price is expected to be a certain multiple of that dividend payout. So for example if I get 1 dollar from a share each year I would be happy to pay 10dollars to hold that share - that's a 10% return and you won't get that in a bank. So a share price of 10x the annual dividend would be reasonable to many investors if the company was viewed as being on a sure footing.

In summary then: Predicted sales plus 1.25% of hash through 2014 gives an average share price of 0.031 BTC in 2014.

All IMO. Let's have a heated debate?