How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price? There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC. If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue. That's 3.3% of the network. Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day. It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.
With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day. Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?
What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power? Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.
This isn't just about deploying some faster technology. The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world. Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?
I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.
Read all about ASICMINER's "vision of the future" from their post on 10th December. The only question is whether it happens or not ...