Quote from: SlipperySlope on December 10, 2013, 08:25:12 PM

A logistic model of bitcoin adoption by speculators predicts that exponential growth will eventually end.

Here is the widely used general model . , ,

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/Diffusion_of_ideas.svg/330px-Diffusion_of_ideas.svg.png

In this multi-year thread I will update and monitor a particular model that assumes a million dollar maximum bitcoin price. I chose a high price because plausible arguments can be made that bitcoin will eventually replace fiat currency worldwide.

I use the MtGox price series through 2011 and Bitstamp prices thereafter as the input data. The logistic trendline passes through the earliest recorded bitcoin price, and is subsequently hand-fit to the remainder of the price series.

I simply guessed at the maximum bitcoin price. Periodic review will determine when the rapid exponential growth of bitcoin stops. Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth.

The below chart is plotted with a log price axis . . .

http://i.imgur.com/7HmlJdg.png

Here is the same logistic model using a linear price axis . . .

http://i.imgur.com/EZ9mIFM.png

Log10 delta from the trend . . .

http://i.imgur.com/0KsawJd.png

The entire spreadsheet of data and analysis is published here and is updated daily.

Whatever price one selects for the maximum, the slope of the exponential portion of the log-S-Curve is the same - as I discovered when I performed sensitivity analysis on the model. Accordingly, the rate of growth that we have so far witnessed will continue at the same breathtaking acceleration until it inevitably begins to rapidly taper off.

I dedicate this thread to long term bitcoin holders, and to the author of this classic forum post from June 2011, at a time when bitcoin was priced at $13 - having risen 260x from $0.05 only a year before. ...

I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen

Quote from: Anonymous on June 05, 2011, 03:50:32 AM

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Here are the thread music video themes . . .

Zhou Tonged - Holding (Billy Joel - The Longest Time)
"The sky's the limit, and I'm in it to win it".

Laura Saggers - 10,000 Bitcoins
"Its having someone to share the dream, I'm so glad you share yours with me"

Here is the thread destination image . . .
http://i.imgur.com/5Zo5uzt.gif
To The Moon !!!

Slippery Slope's Relevant posts . . .

Notable conversations started by others . . .

Memorable quotes by others . . .

Quote from: aminorex on January 25, 2014, 06:41:27 PM

No financial planner would have my goals. If they did, they would be institutionalized. Also, I can't afford to hire anyone smarter than me, and I won't hire anyone dumber than me.

Quote from: justusranvier on December 18, 2013, 05:54:16 PM

(editor: Hal Finney's prescient reply to Satoshi Nakamoto's announcement back in 2009 - the very beginning . . .)
http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

Quote from: Hal Finney

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Quote from: thebanker28 on December 25, 2013, 02:36:48 AM

If the projection is correct my miniature Bitcoin holding will no longer be so miniature. LOL.

Quote from: Voodah on December 26, 2013, 03:05:31 AM

I assure you, nothing resists corruption.

There is already ample evidence of corruption in Bitcoin, both in the early days and now.

Quote from: BitDreams on January 07, 2014, 11:30:19 PM

(editor: SWIFT is the 2000+ employee firm managing existing bank transfers in 212 countries)

Re: 'SWIFT' -- could adopt Bitcoin and campaign with 'All the money in the world handled by all the nodes in the world'.

Quote from: Andrew717 on January 18, 2014, 12:19:37 PM

In 1982 there were only 12 billionaires. In 2000 there were about 300. And now 1,500. So in 2025 maybe 10,000+ billionaires.

Quote from: BitDreams on January 23, 2014, 12:04:14 AM

Leadership from Bitcoin, innovation from the Altcoins. I wonder what consolidation among coins will look like? I hope enthusiasts discover methods of gracefully merging those deserving more than abandonment. Nothing sadder than pulling up a QT wallet and finding no peers.

Quote from: skivrmt on March 21, 2014, 06:53:58 PM

I still think you're kinda nuts, but it's fun to keep dreaming with you during this fun ride, up, down, up, down... Wink

You can manipulate charts/lines almost anyway you want to make a point. I'm not saying you specifically are doing this, but you are certainly "reaching" a bit.

Quote from: Dr.Zaius on March 21, 2014, 08:56:11 PM

TA practitioners and sages eventually all suffer from Apophenia. They can't even help themselves at some point, they will chart a cockroach running up a wall to look for patterns.

Quote from: twiifm on March 25, 2014, 04:53:44 AM

Technical analysis is always trumped by fundamentals over the long run.

Quote from: BitDreams on March 27, 2014, 09:46:44 PM

Start with an anti-fragile base and build on top of it. Just like Microsoft has chosen to stop supporting WindowsXP on April 8th, Bitcoin developers can dump the old code and build from the ground up with the goal of lasting more than 27 years.

Quote from: BitDreams on March 27, 2014, 10:45:34 PM

Bitcoin works at the core so enforcers can concentrate on the edges.

I believe the more the law understands bitcoin the more they will work to support it. Bitcoin benefits everyone but the sharks.

Very nice job.

So late to see it.

I hope I can see it one year ago.