Quote from: Realerre on November 02, 2018, 11:13:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 02, 2018, 11:07:05 PM

Quote from: kenzawak on November 02, 2018, 06:47:23 PM

Can someone make Arthur Hayes shut up ?

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-bitmex-ceo-doubles-down-on-bear-call-says-btc-could-fall-to-2000/

Quote

CCN reported earlier this week that Hayes, a former Citigroup trader, is now predicting that the bitcoin downtrend could last another 18 months, mirroring the nuclear bear market the crypto industry experienced in 2014 and 2015. Writing in Fridays edition of the BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest, Hayes doubled down on that portentous outlook.

Sure... Lot's of things "could" happen, including down to $2k.

I suppose the article is emphasizing the change of rhetoric of some "important" peeps.

If they suggest "$50k in 2018", and then later they say "could down to $2k", it still remains important to attempt to figure out context of these kinds of BTC predictions and the kinds of probabilities these supposedly "important" sorcerers are assigning to various events at certain times (and perhaps just a spike in price too) - and then in the end, does it matter what the sorcerer says if such BTC price prediction are provided as conclusions and without much if any context?

At this point, it does seem a bit more plausible that down to $2k could be reached in 2018 rather than $50k, but the greater probability of down to $2k in 2018 does NOT mean that it is likely for either seemingly extreme event to happen... perhaps less than 10% either way, no?

Getting more specific: Maybe below 10% odds for down to $2k, and perhaps below 5% odds for $50k?

Both price performances are possible and just because down to $2k has a bit higher odds does not make it a very reasonable to be asserting such statement as if its odds were higher than what it really is.

By the way, I am just SOMAing^(tm-d_eddie) a bit regarding my actual numbers.....just to assign some approximate probabilities that might be currently quasi-reasonable for btc price movements between now and the end of this calendar year.

Or maybe sideways, this could be the direction....

Well, of course, sideways (especially within about a $1k to $2k price range) would be way more likely than asserting either down to $2k or up to $50k in this calendar year, and I suppose that is part of my irritation regarding the above cited article.

When we are talking about future possible BTC price scenarios, there are all kinds of directions that could play out, and some of the scenarios are more likely than others, including the BTC price staying somewhat in the same territory that it is now, and the outcome of events only become 100% after they play out.. so I just become a bit irritated when BTC price predictions are described out of context and without really exploring the context of possibilities (which seems to be a common occurrence in BTClandia).

By the way, I have heard Hayes interviewed before, and he is certainly no dummie, so therefore, I doubt that he only considers future BTC possibilities in one direction - even though it remains certainly reasonable for him to either bet on one direction (such as down) and to assign high probabilities to one direction, such as down (but those kinds of specifics seem to be quite absent from the ccn.com article).