Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived. For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days. Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?

"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."
LOL
Hey, by your logic, which requires taking Lindy totally literally, then Lindy must imply that nothing would ever survive past the first spark of creation.
But you needn't put any effort into accommodating concepts that don't immediately fit some naive expectations, if you don't so wish.
Taleb is worth reading.

Hmm... by your logic, Bitcoin will always be half way through its life.

You might want to read Taleb again, I believe he did suggest factoring in the health of something, too - since as Globbo rightfully says; this simplistic view is logically nonsense.

What Taleb meant is that the longer something survives the more robust, or anti-fragile it tends to become. But I don't think that meant an eternal half-life.