In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.
You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived. For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days. Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.
I think you have the wrong impression of what Bitcoin/Monero is if you are comparing Talebs hypothesis on that. Its a decentralized effort on the part of
that makes any crypto currencies successful. Bitcoin is still being tormented by the politics of Roger Ver & Co. while at the same time continually ignoring all the reasons why... and Monero is still achieving the feat of being able to fund developers on donations on the whim of whether people feel generous or not.
... I wouldnt chalk up any real cryptocurrency projects to not have any human-ness about them at all.