You know, somehow I can tolerate Mat's doom & gloom brand of bearism... at least he has some skin in the game in a way most bears rarely do, he's actively shorting. I appreciate the drama around that, if not his analysis.
But you, Impaler...
your incredulity is surprising. I am indeed not a miner, I am an observer of miners and a student of macro-economics which puts me in a better position to predict the overall trends then an individual miner who thinks micro-economically. First you confuse 'declining profitability' with 'unprofitable', as you said the unprofitable miner ceases to mine and the miners as a whole stay profitable but JUST BARELY. And just barely profitable miners still have costs that need to be paid, so the percentage of your daily take that can be hoarded declines. It is as simple as that.
You just sound like a pompous prick when you put on that bear suit.
I remember the last discussion we had about this topic.
August 7th, in one of chodpaba's threads. Price had dipped slightly below 100 again these days (on bitstamp), and based on the same "I have a deep insight into the psychology of miners" bullshit argument, you predicted, what?, going back to 50? Something like that.
You recommended fucking shorting, in fact, a few days before a trend that took us from ~100 to ~1200.
I'm sure you will forgive me if I'm not exactly reading your analysis based on miners' sales/hoarding strategies with the utmost reverence.