Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 06:50:13 PM

$40 for SLV will not hold.

Ok... why?

Remember, the argument for silver being an industrial metal cuts both ways. A recovery rally sparking off would give momentum to silver while gold stagnates or even drops somewhat, not even considering the increasing physical shortages of the precious metals.

Silver moves in close relation with gold, so silver moving higher will provide headroom for gold to rise as well instead of acting as an anchor as it does now. The GSR would fall as well, increasing investment demand relative to gold. That double influence has propelled silver many times before and there's no reason to expect that to change.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 07:10:07 PM

so the fact that Gordon Brown sold the BofE's gold in 2000 and that the central banks of the world were selling for most of the noughts while i and the smart money were buying means now they're correct and we should follow their lead?

If it were a link about the BoE, that argument would be relevant. Not all central banks are created equal, nor are they all subject to the same pressures. Developed nations have fiat issues to be concerned about and would have to sell their gold reserves to stabilize their respective currencies while developing nations are building capital and seek to preserve it by buying gold as a reserve.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 07:31:48 PM

i'm gonna give all you guys a huge tip here that i just spotted. just for my fellow bitcoiners:

look at the VOLUME on DZZ, the double inverse short of gold today. ENORMOUS. someone knows something the fundamentals can't possibly fathom.

edit: highest volume EVER by a factor of 2.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 07:52:58 PM

looks like i have lotsa company in DZZ. the volume today is now MORE than double its highest volume ever on 8/9/11. which side of the boat do you want to be on?

Quote from: S3052 on August 23, 2011, 07:59:27 PM

I love this boat. This is so beautiful. Already +70 points on XAUUSD... with big leverage.

Does DZZ drive the price of gold? How many clever speculators have been waiting for gold to fall, especially with the price rising almost exactly to a 423.6% Fibonacci projection from the May 1st to 5th decline? If gold retests its $1900 high, how many of them will panic and sell DZZ? When has it ever been good to ride with the masses, much less try to catch a falling knife (DZZ)?

The tail does not wag the dog. Here today, smoke tomorrow. Just cash in while you can - I'd sell most of my short positions now. That's the voice of experience: you don't forget losing a one week, seven-figure profit in a matter of hours.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 07:46:24 PM

i'm really saying none of that shit matters. and since when has Chavez been a good market timer? Wink

When you're small, you have to follow and time the market. When you're a big fish, momentary timing isn't anywhere near as important as volume. Without sufficient counterparties, you can't shift your position (someone has to buy what you're selling or sell what you want to buy), not to mention the finesse required to make a gradual transition that doesn't knock prices around too much. But that isn't even the issue with Venezuela.

For Chavez, it isn't even a purchase or sale - it's a transfer from one custodian to another because the current one is suspected of mismanagement. This would be the same as moving your retirement fund from Bank of America to TD because you suspect an imminent failure of the former.

Such a vote of no-confidence could easily trigger additional moves from other large holders. Chavez's hourglass will have run out if/when it is dicovered that there is insufficient gold being held by the western facilities.

Stop thinking like small-fry and shift your perspective to that of a big fish. You'll accumulate more wealth and sleep better.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 08:11:07 PM

what you're witnessing is US dollar hegemony in play. the power to turn on and OFF the spigot when the Fed wants. the only way to play this is thinking like a criminal and picking out extremes in sentiment as well as chart parabolas. there would be no greater satisfaction to Ben and the bankers then to smash gold to smithereens right here, right now. and they have the power to do it.

i think the top is in. the ferociousness of todays selloff on HIGH volume, not only on the futures and GLD but especially on the double inverse short DZZ is screaming "LOOK OUT".

at this point i don't think silver clears the April high. until it does, my opinion won't change.

That's for sure - the clout of the biggest player around deciding to throw his weight before he's overpowered. Turning off the spigot is harder than it would seem, though. Expanding the base money supply is easy enough, but how do you withdraw those funds? It isn't like a credit limit that can be reduced, nor are there any counterparties to call debts in from.

If "they" have the power, why isn't gold still at $250/oz and silver back below $5/oz?

I'm looking for a breach of the $50 level in silver during September.

I really don't care about anyone else's trading; that's their business. It's the physical holding that concerns me. Whether there's deflation or inflation, instability means that physical gold will be in demand. When there's enough shortage that no gold is readily available and prices are out of range for the majority of people who haven't gotten it, those without will suffer. It doesn't matter if you think Bitcoin will rule the world - the world still runs on gold.

Quote from: MatthewLM on August 23, 2011, 08:31:18 PM

I think technical analysis is only good int he short term. Using it for medium or longer terms is not any good. Technical analysis says something is overbought when it's simply just increasing demand.

I was thinking about selling today but I knew it was too risky to make short term bets. I definitely just want to hold on to gold as central banks kill fiat and more and more people see the benefit to gold.

The same patterns arise on all scales, so technical analysis can apply to a minute chart or a decade chart. It depends on how short a time-frame you're talking about - minutes, hours days... I'd say yes. At the weekly level and beyond, technicals give way to fundamentals (then they can be used to confirm fundamentals). At least with precious metals.

You could always buy put options. It can be quick money while waiting for the fundamentals to reassert and carry gold higher. The banks don't even have to kill fiat, just revalue it against gold.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 08:22:02 PM

EIGHT boxes of salmon, halibut, and cod. one of the most beautiful places on Earth. if you all were here i'd give you each a vacuum pack.

I think we can all agree that's better than gold any day! Grin