Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 09:48:07 PM

the return will be waiting to buy assets at the bottom of the Depression for pennies on the dollar. the wealth transfer at the end of the Depression of the 1930's was historic.

That's what I'm looking at as well. Not many people will be able to avoid drawing down their savings to survive, leaving those with appropriate wealth management to scoop up dirt-cheap real assets.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 10:02:17 PM

Because its time:

we're at the top of a trading cycle in silver and today we formed whats called a swing high along with a downturn of several long term indicators shown in the bottom of my picture. notice how the RSI, MACD, and Money Flow Index have been weakening for almost 4 months. we hit the top of the overbought trading cycle today and should enter a drawn out downphase that could last months. SLV in one day has turned down and is just hovering above $40. it should slice down thru $40 like a knife thru butter.

edit: sorry, the Money Flow Index got chopped off the bottom of my chart. you'll have to take my word for it.

It isn't time until the market says it's time.

There's no doubt - the charts and indicators certainly are screaming for a correction. At the same time, it's dangerous to discount peripheral information that can potentially be more relevant. This whole thing just feels like it's going to whip around in an effort to throw off those who can't hang on. SLV isn't GLD, but they're functionally close enough in a monetary sense.

I do want to point you to one item; the GLD total NAV tonnes in the trust (source). There's an indicator that I came across while reading FOFOA's blog called the GLD Puke Indicator (yes, puke). It has had an almost perfect record of predicting a rise in gold within a day or two; it triggers a buy signal when the amount of gold in the trust has declined by >1%. That has been an indication of capitulation selling by holders of GLD.

Here is the relevant information, in tonnes:

Date	08/22	08/23
Tonnes	1,284.402	1,259.569

1259.569 / 1284.402 == 0.981 or a 1.9% decline.

That's an even greater decline than the ~1.8% drop on August 11th. In light of the fact that Jackhole is coming up, along with futures options expiration, there could be more selling pressure imminent to squeeze the weak hands further and/or at least hold the price below the $1850 level. If that's unsuccessful, we could see yet another rocket up approaching the $2000 level. I'm leaning toward the effort of maintaining the price level until the end of the month.

Ponder this for a moment:

Date	08/08	08/22
Share	$167.12	$184.59
Tonnes	1,309.922	1,284.402

How is it that the price per share is up over 10% while the tonnes held in the trust declined by almost 2%? That's either shoddy fund management, or the metal was needed elsewhere. Venezuela? COMEX deliveries? Perhaps other sovereign funds that have requested delivery? Eric Sprott is always looking for billions of dollars more in metal...

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 23, 2011, 10:15:26 PM

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/23/shanghai-gold-exchange-lifts-margins-for-gold-forwards/

The last margin increase didn't do much to gold or treasuries; more like a speedbump. A lot of strong hands that can pay 100% margin want their metal delivered. Not to mention insatiable global demand. When the margin rates are increased in rapid succession or to a 1:1 ratio, I'll raise an eyebrow.

Finally, here's an interesting and creative solution to the issue of getting all the gold from BoE to Venezuela.