Quote from: Trading on November 07, 2018, 05:54:31 PM

Ray Kurzweil predictions of a human level general AI by 2029 and the singularity by 2045 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Future_predictions) might be wrong, because he bases his predictions on the enduring validity of Moore's Law.

Moore's Law (which says that components on a integrated circuit double every two years and, hence, also its speed) is facing challenges.

Currently, the rate of speed increase is more 2.5 or 3 years than 2 and it's not clear if even this is sustainable.

As the nods on chips keep shrinking, quantum mechanics steps in and electrons start becoming hard to control (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law).

I doubt they will use silicon for long. Also amdahls law says once we reach 200 or so cores worth of this architecture anything else is wasted even in parallel.

My answer is here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5065031.0