Quote from: kaopxa on November 09, 2018, 08:06:45 PM

Quote from: franky1 on November 09, 2018, 06:31:37 PM

and soon new more efficient ASICS are to be launched.. so that may test the $6100. so i am going to see if december (by the time the new asics are online) tests the $6100 or $5800 lines

Wouldn't more efficient miners allow the price to be lower? More hashpower for less $$, plus old miners retiring gear?

yep
. i just done the math..
for the S9 asics
52exa was the $5800 line
for the new T15 asics
65exa is the $5800 line

right now while the hashrate is around the 52exa average. if the entire mining community had T15 asics (delivery isnt until after christmas, but roll with my 'if' scenario)
then pools would get 1800 btc a day where each btc would cost them less.. ($4500)
now IF all 1800 coins a day were sold simultaneously at the same time. it would put enough down pressure to make the price go down below the shortterm support of $6100

but as you can see. many ifs.
1. if the hashrate remained at 52exa to late december so that asics were profitable for less that $5800
2. if all pools had T15 asics so that a whole day of coin rewards 1800 were created at lower cost
3. if all pools sold said coins at the same time.

so as long as the hashrate climes to 65exa by christmas. then those using t15 after delivery(christmas) will have a cost of over $5800 per btc.. thus they wont want to sell for less thus the 11 month baseline of $5800 will remain intact