Quote from: roy7 on January 27, 2014, 02:08:15 PM

Quote from: raskul on January 27, 2014, 07:54:23 AM

forgive me being a noob, how is the pool luck calculated? it's now becoming another long round and luck is showing at 110... what does this mean?

CDF is a much better number to look at than "luck" which can vary from pool to pool on what they even mean by the word. The CDF you can think of as the probability a block would have been found given the current difficulty and number of shares that have been submitted to the pool.

Right now, the pool CDF is 62.73%. So given the amount of work done since the last block, there was a 62.73% the pool would have found the block by now.

50% CDF is the median (half of all blocks found should be < 50% and half > 50% with a large enough sample size), 63.2% is the average.

Remember no longer how long the current round has been it has no effect on the odds of finding a block. The purpose of calculating the graphing things like the CDF of rounds is so the pool can be analyzed to be sure there's not something wrong with it.

When a round goes really long and has a CDF of 95%, it's annoying, but 5% of all blocks will end up at or higher than 95%. 1% of all blocks will end up at 99% or higher. But on the other hand, 5% will end up at 5% or lower and 1% will end up at 1% or lower.

thanks roy, that makes sense.