Quote from: drays on November 15, 2018, 10:45:23 PM

Quote from: kronos123 on November 15, 2018, 01:50:54 PM

The final and total analysis is the one that counts from the count Elliot of OP, and he has indicated several times around 1000 $ as the final target of Bitcoin in 2020.

"Final and total" heh.. I hope you understand he didn't get this $1000 target figure from the Elliot Waves analysis.

He actually got that number by combining two sources - (a) the fact that a "typical" bubble of an ordinary asset loses about 90-95% of value (5% of 20K is 1K); and (b) he believes Bitcoin is an ordinary overvalued asset, which just got through its first serious bubble condition. If we take those two presumptions, we get the 1K target (though by some reason OP liked to talk about $500-800 target too, but that doesn't like to fit with any theory, and is probably just reflects his preferences).

However, there are many people here (including me) who do not share his point (b). That's the main reason of arguments here (your friends call it "hating" and somehow you feel a need to defend OP from the nasty "haters").

As I don't share his point (b), to me $1000 figure seems to be too low... if Bitcoin reaches $1000 again, it could be a point of no return and it could happen only in case of a extremely serious problem comparing to catastrophe (serious bug in the code, Satoshi moving his funds, quantum computing suddenly making all current cryptography useless, or similar). Based on previous bubbles, if nothing like that happens, this bear market has to end between 3K and 4K, spending the most time moving around $4K, with few short dumps to around 3K. By the way, 3.1K is where the current weekly MA200 resides, and breaking below that is highly undesirable for anyone who believes in Bitcoin's future and understands markets a little bit.

There is an interesting article published just before this last dump: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
This guy predicted the dump just before it actually happened. Look at parallels with 2014. If we apply them, we are now moving into the "despair" state of 2015, where we got two bottoms with about 50% of price of the state where the cross happened - so around 3K more or less.

Sorry I have no graphs to make my assumptions look more "scientific" and convincing to people who like graphs... You can draw them in you head, as I do

.
No beautiful Fibonacci numbers too Sad

I believe they are useful to short term traders mainly, who need exact numbers to day-trade... I prefer long-term - its far less stressful, and allows to stay cool and calm.

1) OP author has never said he hopes and wants Bitcoin at $ 1000!

2) Author OP has always expressed his opinion and vision, right or wrong that it is!
There are hundreds of users in here saying Eth at $ 10,000 for the end of 2018, or Xrp for $ 10, etc. what's the problem? I express and say what I want, and if you do not like it, do not read and go further.
You do not share his analysis, for your studies and your reasons, and that's okay because there is still respect in your comments; what bothers me is the irony and free attacks brought by other users.
To constructively criticize is good for everyone; attacking and mocking is stupid and hurts, everyone!
P.S. thanks for the article

3) I do not defend OP but I defend the right to analysis and study that he carries on, with passion and dedication, with changes and improvements.
He does not have a channel where we are paying for his signals and services; if we do not like it, we can ignore it and move on to something else!