Quote from: cypherdoc on August 25, 2011, 05:18:39 AM

miscreanity:

well i guess i ought to reveal a little secret to everyone here also: You Sir were the inspiration for this thread. your unsolicited PM coming out of my computer screen free of charge, an unknown voice from the Internet advising me to close out my short positions and buy because gold and silver were going to the moon. A voice with years of experience and wisdom in the precious metals markets filled with concern over my well being. you along with my secretary, gold pundits, TV ads, Gold stores around the corner all bullish on gold. how could anything go wrong?

as you said earlier; its nice to know who i'm taking money from.

When the message was sent on August 8th, gold was around $1700. I had suggested not buying in size, but also not shorting. My intent was to convince you to keep your physical metal holdings, though I could've been more explicit on that. As it so happens, gold rose $200 from where you were getting ready to short. Do you feel lucky now? Are you willing to bet your wealth on luck, or a more measured approach?

Quote from: miscreanity on August 08, 2011, 08:12:34 PM

Just some words of caution; how you trade is ultimately your decision.

The conversation has obviously gone more toward short-term trading than long-term investing, although both the fundamentals and technicals have been covered extensively from numerous angles.

I still stand by the advice of holding your physical come hell or high water. Trading has once again become as much an art as a science.

My overall rationale for offering the advice is this:

The most powerful banks, corporations and governments of this world have taken us all to ruin. As the system crumbles and they try to prop it up, there is a window of opportunity during which individuals can build up some protection and survive or even thrive. With all of the misinformation and placating being done to help the giants maintain the status quo, the vast majority of people will succumb.

I've been studying the precious metals and related history for years. I've also been putting that knowledge into practice, with a lot of experience to build from thanks to some truly great people in the sector. It's become fairly easy now to see through the methods used by the organizations listed above. Ironically, in trying to keep the masses calm and protected, greater suffering will ensue. Therefore, even though it might be a futile effort, I try to offer explanation for what's going on beyond the inconsistent gibberish that come from the media.

The key here is that the more people who survive intact financially, the less devastating the overall effects of a collapse will be. If too many are completely wiped out, there will be major violence and a breakdown of society to an unimaginable level.

If nothing else, just take away one thing - hold onto your physical metal. If you don't have any, get some. At least an ounce or two of gold while it's still readily available.

There are repeated head fakes being perpetrated, and this is yet another of them. As I said earlier, Bernanke's announcement to come at Jackson Hole will simply be a trigger for what's been building over the last few months, particularly in silver.

When statistical concentration is stretched to its limit, it must reverse. As Harvey Organ noted yesterday, during the two day fall in gold and silver, more than all of the world's entire yearly production was shorted. Very similar selling happened in 2008, but the drop then was far more than 10%. Where is all of the metal to back those positions coming from? It doesn't exist; this is a paper game and you can only throw so much money at a problem before it becomes ineffective.

Weakness will be feigned with a higher high, followed by another assault leading to a lower low. It will look like an outside reversal to the downside. This is a pattern that has repeated many times at all chart scales from 5-seconds to monthlies. After watching it play out so many times, I've lost count of how many times I've lost count.

Compare GLD with an apparent outside reversal to gold which held support on a closing basis:

GLD is a paper game. Physical metal is running the show.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 25, 2011, 01:55:58 PM

no it won't. that article you posted about shipping problems to Venezuela proves my pt. and having a couple of centralized sources like the LBMA and the Comex? how'd that work out?

Your point would apply if such physical shipments had to occur on a regular basis. They do not.

As I mentioned earlier, the problems arose during a fixed exchange which leverage grew around. Floating exchanges preclude the mass imbalances that were spawned from that.

Quote from: MatthewLM on August 25, 2011, 02:09:10 PM

Edit: Did those fibonacci trading techniques work before they were invented?

Did patterns exist before trading?

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 25, 2011, 02:16:18 PM

i'm agnostic on UST's. really don't know what will happen with them.

however, everyone knows the bond floors of Japan are littered with the bodies of shorts trying for decades. i could see a similar situation here. miscreanity would argue that theres no way that can happen b/c Japan's bonds were funded by the great savings of its citizens. i would argue that UST's will be funded by the savers of the world b/c our bond mkt is the largest and most liquid of all. the USD should skyrocket as well which would help. if gold tanks the only other choice is UST's or Bitcoin. and we still have the largest most successful and developed economy of the worldwide midgets.

Sure you do, it's just the timing that's virtually impossible to call right now.

Bonds are an institutional medium. Widespread demand will be for a general transactional medium, such as the Euro or USD or local currency (gold/silver are last resort), leaving the bond burdens to be supported by... ?

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 25, 2011, 03:12:26 PM

next wave of bad news for gold: USD beginning its ascent

Gold is clawing its way back up as well. Do you want to start singing the 'one day does not make a trend' tune on that now? It would apply to the dollar just as readily. Be careful when you jump without looking. Temper the type-A; patience is the greatest virtue.

Quote from: MatthewLM on August 25, 2011, 03:56:07 PM

Around the world people will continue to wake up to the horrid fiat and the safety of gold. Gold is a rebellion against the devaluing fiat currencies and the fiat frauds.

Indeed, they are. They certainly are not acquiring fiat currencies or buying bonds.