Quote from: dbbit on January 29, 2014, 08:45:50 PM

Quote from: aneutronic on January 29, 2014, 07:53:22 PM

this^
even if hf ships 1600 ghs mpp at the end of Feb (lol) he will still only get ~6BTC per machine in 6 months, not even close to the 61BTC he could have bought for the usd cost of each machine. I'm no investment expert but a 90% loss is not a good investment no matter which way you try to paint it.
I feel sorry for those that don't understand this. Sad

Not quite.

Not buying something is not the same as taking a loss.

That's like saying everybody who bought BTC last year April for $100 and sold it later at $1000 made a 90% loss because if they instead bought TSLA June calls at that time they would have gotten $10'000 instead.

Hindsight is 20/20. It wasn't foreseeable that the rise would happen at the time it did. If BTC instead fell from $100 to $50, the hardware (even though it's late) would have been the better investment. Just because there were better investments available in hindsight, doesn't mean your investment was a loss.

If your personal risk tolerance is such that you don't like to hold on to BTC, then the BabyJet might still possibly be kind'a profitable-ish, even if BTC stays the same value from now on. For that matter, you can probably just sell your BabyJet on eBay as soon as you receive it and make a USD profit. That is still not a loss.

Now starting off with 60 BTC and intending to make back BTC on the other hand, is a different story. But only if you had the stomach to watch it rise all the way from $100 to $1000 without selling it. Most people would have liquidated after it doubled. 24 hour markets unfortunately makes it very tempting to take profit.

PS: Your genesisblock calculation assumes the equivalent of 110'000 KNC Neptunes (or 600'000 KNC Jupiter class hardware etc.) shipping over the next 6 months. I find that to be unlikely.

No, you are wrong. If BTC fell from $100 to $50, buying BTC still would have been the better investment.

You would buy a BJ for 60 coins, and earn back, lets say, 10 coins. You spent ~$5750 and ended up with $500.

If you had bought BTC, you'd have 60 BTC, and at the end it would be worth $3000. Still the better investment.