Quote from: MatTheCat on January 30, 2014, 02:44:50 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 29, 2014, 02:54:21 PM

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money

For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

Quote from: MAbtc on January 29, 2014, 05:56:54 PM

I'm actually not sure about that. It's something bulls keep repeating (followed by the "bears will panic buy after nothing happens on the 31st" prediction), but it's not so obvious to me.

I am 0% in Bitcoin at the moment, because I am essentially a bear for the near term. However, I pulled my latest short bet as:

A) Fk all is happening for the time being.

B) I could see Bitcoin taking a surge upwards as the Bitcoin Nutters pile in on the back of some 'good news' or whale manipulated bullish signals, inspiring widespread confidence and investment to rush into Bitcoin, at which point some whale(s) looking to actually turn a sizeable chunk of of his digital code into actual spendable wealth will pull the trigger and smash a shit load of coins into rabidly aggressive bid walls on markets all over, maximising yield of USD but turning the tide on Bitcoin horribly.

Bitcoins rapid rise in 'value' is based largely on restricted supply. It is a cornered market and the Bitcoin whales know this and know what they need to do to make sure they maximise their benefit from it.

This is perhaps a bit of a wild theory, but as a bear, I do not trust right now to be a good time to be short Bitcoin, but a bear I have to remain because my gut tells me that I have got to be at this point in time in addition to my Tech Analysis 101 skills adding weight to the bearish case by the day, especially the break down from the 3 week long descending triangle a few days ago.

I am not just bearish, I sense that there is going to be a slaughter. I am musing over the idea of Bitcoin taking a ostensible bullish leap forward before the bloodbath, simply because this would be the absolutely most brutal scenario that could possibly play out, and the Bitcoin world is a ruthless cut-throat shark infested world.

Bitcoin......run and dominated by 'libertarian lovers of freedom'?

Not in the world that I live in it aint.

if you bears here have already sold and are publicly talking about it, how many are left to keep/bring the price down considering their upside risk? panicking hodlers i could see, but even then the crowd has been disciplined enough (i see it in the crowd around me, selection bias possibility i know) with bitcoin's past wild price movements. it's just an expectation for people buying into bitcoin nowadays. I also suspect that it is becoming more obviously apparent that bitcoin is a superior store of wealth as compared to fiat, so the incentive to hold/buy in has never been stronger. is purchase demand really not that strong enough to support seller demands above 400? I simply find the idea a bit dramatic is all, considering rising user counts (per Mr. Pietila's research) and the 12.x million Bitcoins outstanding

just trying to assess and weigh buyer and seller flows