Quote from: kurious on December 01, 2018, 09:54:48 AM

Quote from: lethos3 on November 30, 2018, 10:39:39 AM

Quote from: aminorex on November 29, 2018, 10:05:07 PM

Quote from: KeyJockey on November 28, 2018, 10:16:15 PM

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz?? LOL... Grin

Maybe. But... nahhh. Not for me. Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance. You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise. I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match. I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances. But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is. It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late. It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low. OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good. But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.

DYOR.

History always repeats itself Grin