Quote from: The Pharmacist on December 12, 2018, 05:49:50 PM

Quote from: cryptocrusher on December 11, 2018, 03:34:33 PM

There are only so many times a market can go through large bull and bear cycles and still survive. It gets harder each time people get burned to convince them to come back to investing in the future.

That's an interesting point, though I don't know how true it really is. I do know a lot of people have been burned with bitcoin and may never come back--but on the other hand, how many people do you think have been burned in the stock market in the past 100 years? The stock market still exists, and it still goes through bull and bear cycles, including times of extreme volatility.

This guy's prediction depends on an enormous IF, i.e., if history repeats itself perfectly. There's little chance it will and no reason to expect it should do so. To me, it's just empty words, very much like everything else TA people spout.

Sure, it's not that they won't ever come back, it's just that it gets harder each time to bring them back to market. If they continue to see bitcoin going through such big swings then they'll only be reminded of the dangers they've previously faced and will be put off from investing.

If on the other-hand bitcoin price is stable for a number of years then they'll be more inclined to come back to the market. That's more similar to how the stock market is.

Any prediction based purely on history alone is going to be flawed, it can still be correct but eventually it won't be. So many things are different with this crash compared to the last one, even if the percentages are roughly in line.