Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 16, 2018, 03:47:08 AM

Quote from: truehedge on December 15, 2018, 09:06:10 AM

Hi Everyone,

There has been something on my mind for last couple of weeks and that is:

Is Bitcoin the ultimate hedge against the upcoming financial crisis?

Let's assume for a while that the financial crisis will break wide open in either late 2019 or at latest early 2020 - we live in everything bubble era.

What do you believe will be the ultimate hedge and why do you think that?

there is no ultimate hedge. in a serious market contraction, everything will crash. on top of that, debt monetization has pumped all markets---even gold and bitcoin have benefited from it.

a global crash definitely means a risk-off investment cycle. this early in its life, bitcoin is still considered a high-risk/high-reward investment, so money would likely flow out of the bitcoin markets and into safer havens.

You're right, actually in September 2008 even the gold was down for a month and a bit and then it went on one hell of a rally. With that in mind I just changed the subject of the topic from "Is Bitcoin the ultimate hedge against the upcoming financial crisis" to "Is Bitcoin going to be the best hedge in the upcoming financial crisis?"

My point is - after the dust settles in something like late 2020 or early 2021, are we going to see Bitcoin thrive (price wise, adoption wise) or is it going to two digits and on verge of being almost forgotten?

The next Bitcoin halving will be on circa 26 May 2020 - probably right in the middle of the financial crisis - this should affect things. If I remember correctly last buildup started in fall of 2015 when we went to bottom of about $180 and then 9 months later it was already on the run and if it wasn't for the Bitfinex hack probably by end of summer 2016 we would have had $1000; instead we had to wait for it till January of 2017.

If history tends to repeat itself the next buildup will start in fall of 2019 if not earlier however the crisis might intervene with this...