Quote from: butka on December 20, 2018, 07:25:09 PM

No, the picture is clear enough and I get what you are saying. But just because the lowest price happened two times in the past at that particular configuration, it doesn't mean it will happen again.

Or let me put it this way: that's not how the Ichimoku system works. I can show you countless examples of other currencies where the appearance of the red cloud above the price meant a prolonged downtrend.

i gave you the link to where i used more important types of indication, i should have posted in the OP but again indeed relying on only this to be 100% is dumb, but i am a big believer in fractals when it comes to bitcoin, even in small time frames , you can find a dozen of fractals that strangely keep on repeating for no technical reason on the chart. this could be the act of bots or god knows what.

as far as how the ichimoku works, i know exactly how it does, as far as am concern the red cloud represents tremendous resistance ahead which is obvious, every previous support from ATH is now adding to the cloud, the ticker it is the harder to break. but being under the cloud does not mean an extended or never ending bear market.

there are a dozen of reasons on why this could be the bottom or at least something that is very close

1- Major support area that held as both support and resistance for about 100 days in 2017.
2- touching the 200 weekly MA which BTC never closed below
3- touching the 50 monthly MA which not a single monthly candle closed below it
4- 85% drop from ATH which almost exactly the same drop we had in 2014
5- it is a very strong support physiologically even or those who don't do TA
6- it is probably the last wall the bulls have to defend before going 1100 as there is latterly no major support below this
7- the RSI on the monthly is sitting at 44 which is nearly the exact bottom of 2014 and the RSI is over sold on the weekly too

TA wise, this level is amazingly strong and should we have a monthly close below the 2700-3000 area then it will be a very easy and fast trip to 900-1100 without any doubts.

as far as the trading plan goes for the couple next months

1- buy the 3k zone , sell the 5-6k
2- sell the close below 3k buy the close above 6k.

as for people shorting at 3k before we break it , i have nothing to say to them except "Good fucking luck" you gonna need it.