Quote from: bitserve on December 28, 2018, 08:10:22 PM

Quote from: jojo69 on December 28, 2018, 05:15:50 PM

Quote from: bitserve on December 28, 2018, 07:36:42 AM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on December 28, 2018, 07:31:41 AM

Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.

From a TA point of view, $10 looks like a very strong support and potential bounce. But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production and oil as the main factor. Oil price is gonna dump really hard over the next couple of decades. As much as electrical cars increase their market share the more affected will be the demand of oil. Main demand right now is coming from cars all over the world. Another interesting side effect is that long distance flights will become even cheaper.

I'm sorry.

Where do you think all this electricity is going to come from?

While there will certainly be plenty of volatility in the energy sector, even "dumps", broadly speaking oil will never, ever, be cheaper in real terms.

Even serious industry paid annalists acknowledge that we are past peak EROI, and there is simply no replacement for the energy density of fossil fuels.

Well, I may be wrong, but this is the reasoning behind my thinking/prediction:

Yes, energy density of fossil fuels is the best and that is why it was so hard to replace for "mobile machines". Flights don't have any substitute for that very same reason. But flights are not the main demand of oil, cars are.

Everything points out that we will see an increase in market share of electric cars during the next next years/decades. I don't think it is unreasonable that half the cars would be electric in two decades.

That would mean a huge decrease in demand for oil.

Where do the electricity came from to power all those cars? Well, I also expect an increase of the alternate power sources now that ie photoelectric has become positive ROI.
Also nuclear is still rocking and with the new safer designs maybe they would start building much more new ones if the need arise? Not sure about that one to be honest.

Also it doesn't really need for something as huge as a halving of oil dependance from cars to affect the price hard. Since many decades to now that demand has been increasing yet the price has remained more or less constant (hugely volatile though) or even decreased. When it not only stops growing (the demand) but decrease significantly I would guess it's impact on price would be multiplied.

Also, oil producers seeing that in the future the demand would keep decreasing would be more eager to monetise their reserves faster than others. Again, with the effect of lowering price.

As I said, I might be wrong, but that is my reasoning and makes sense to me.

P.S.: Yeah, I haven't included fusion because it has been so long they said it was near that I don't believe it anymore.

Add to it that cheap oil is a monopoly owned by a handful of people who can de- and increase production at will.

Its quite similiar to the artificial scarcity of the diamond market which de beers controls.

Ps: Fusion would solve every energy problem of humanity for a long time.
But for the short and midterm we still have PV where prototypes already reach 35% efficiency and gen 3 and 4 nuclear reactors.
Gen 5 are already in research.

Oil is just the cheapest form of energy for now, definitely not the best.